U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by...?

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by...?". December 31 leads at 71.1%. Next is October 31 at 28.9%. $12K has traded across 2 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 1, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. personnel directly participate on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conduct a kinetic action directed against a cartel on foreign soil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. "U.S. personnel” refers to members of the U.S. Armed Forces and officers or employees of any U.S. government department or agency acting in an official capacity. An anti-cartel operation or kinetic action is “directed against a cartel” if it explicitly targets a cartel, a narcotics-trafficking organization, a narco-terrorist organization, or the personnel, assets, infrastructure, or activities of any such group or organization. A specific cartel or organization need not be named. “Foreign soil” means the terrestrial territory of a country other than the United States, including internal waters within that territory. Territorial seas, other maritime zones, and airspace are excluded. Where borders are disputed, territory claimed by and under the de facto control of a foreign country as of market creation will qualify. A qualifying anti-cartel operation refers to an operation in which U.S. personnel are physically present as part of the force directly engaging cartel personnel, assets, or infrastructure on foreign soil. For example, qualifying operations may include a raid; entry, breach, or search of a target site; a search, arrest, apprehension, detention, boarding, interdiction, or seizure; disabling or destroying cartel assets or infrastructure; or direct ground combat against cartel personnel.U.S. personnel must be physically present on foreign soil at the target site or its immediate perimeter as part of the force carrying out or attempting a qualifying operational action against a cartel target. Such presence qualifies regardless of whether U.S. personnel themselves enter the target site or carry out the action. Mere presence on foreign soil, indirect participation in a joint operation, or involvement limited to training, intelligence, surveillance, logistics, support, advisory, command-and-control, coordination, reconnaissance, patrols, transportation, force protection, inspections, demonstrations, media or information campaigns, or similar activities will not count unless the requirement for physical presence at the target site or its immediate perimeter as part of the force conducting the qualifying action is met. Only operations in which direct U.S. participation is confirmed by official statements from the U.S. government or by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, will qualify. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify. Qualifying kinetic actions include air strikes and surface-to-surface missile strikes, initiated by U.S. personnel, directed against a cartel target located on foreign soil. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. Kinetic actions that consist primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying kinetic action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered. The occurrence, attribution to U.S. personnel, timing, location, target, and nature of U.S. participation in a potentially qualifying anti-cartel operation or kinetic action will be determined primarily from official statements from the U.S. government or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Where credible reporting indicates that a potentially qualifying action occurred within the market timeframe but any fact required for qualification is materially disputed or inconclusive, the market will remain open with respect to that action until the earlier of: i) confirmation that the action qualifies through official statements from the U.S. government or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting; or ii) 11:59 PM ET on the third full calendar day after the first credibly reported evidence of the action. The date of the first credible report will not count as one of the three full calendar days. If this period ends before the specified date and the available evidence remains inconclusive, the market will remain open pending later confirmation or a subsequent qualifying action. If the period extends past the specified date, the market will remain open until the period ends. After the specified date and the expiration of any applicable three-day period, the market will resolve to “No” unless a qualifying anti-cartel operation or kinetic action has been established through official statements from the U.S. government or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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