The Prediction Markets

US crude oil exports in November

Closes
Jan 29, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$7K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 4.0 million barrels/day 97%

Next is Above 6.0 million barrels/day at 45%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 4.0 million barrels/day
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.0 million barrels/day
Last price
97%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6.0 million barrels/day
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.0 million barrels/day
Last price
45%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$481
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.0 million barrels/day
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.0 million barrels/day
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.5 million barrels/day
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.5 million barrels/day
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.5 million barrels/day
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.5 million barrels/day
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$786
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 4.0 million barrels/day
  • Above 6.0 million barrels/day
  • Above 5.0 million barrels/day

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "US crude oil exports in November". Above 4.0 million barrels/day leads at 97%. Next is Above 6.0 million barrels/day at 45%. $7K has traded across 5 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 29, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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