The Prediction Markets

US economic state at the end of 2026?

Closes
Feb 1, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$267K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Overheating 79%

Next is Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) at 77.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Overheating
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Overheating
Last price
79%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
77.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$83K
Trade this on Kalshi
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
77.5%
Polymarket 77.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 79¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
Last price
77.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$37K
Trade this on Polymarket
Soft landing
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 21.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $472 (4.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
Soft landing
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21.2¢
Sell Yes
17.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$472 (4.72x)
Volume
$38K
Trade this on Kalshi
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
17.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$51K
Trade this on Polymarket
Stagflation
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stagflation
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$30K
Trade this on Kalshi
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
1.5%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Slack / disinflation
0.2%
Kalshi 0.2%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Slack / disinflation
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: FRED CPIAUCSL, FRED UNRATE

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Overheating
  • Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
  • Soft landing

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Overheating for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "US economic state at the end of 2026?". Overheating leads at 79%. Next is Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) at 77.5%. $267K has traded across 8 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 1, 2027.

The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release. This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026. If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026. This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%. The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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