The Prediction Markets

US electricity price in October

Closes
Nov 10, 2026, in 18 days
Traded
$13K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 18.8¢ 98.5%

Next is Above 19.0¢ at 97.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 18.8¢
98.5%
Kalshi 98.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 18.8¢
Last price
98.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 19.0¢
97.5%
Kalshi 97.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 19.0¢
Last price
97.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
97¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 19.2¢
91.5%
Kalshi 91.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 19.2¢
Last price
91.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
2.20 to $2.30
53%
Polymarket 53%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.20 to $2.30
Last price
53%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 19.4¢
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 19.4¢
Last price
52%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$997
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 19.6¢
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 19.6¢
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$389
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 19.8¢
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 19.8¢
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$281
Trade this on Kalshi
2.10 to $2.20
25%
Polymarket 25%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.10 to $2.20
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.30 to $2.40
16%
Polymarket 16%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.30 to $2.40
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$896
Trade this on Polymarket
2.00 to $2.10
7.1%
Polymarket 7.1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.00 to $2.10
Last price
7.1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$703
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Above 20.0¢
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 20.0¢
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
2.60 to $2.70
4.3%
Polymarket 4.3%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 7.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,299 (13.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.60 to $2.70
Last price
4.3%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
7.7¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,299 (13.0x)
Volume
$236
Trade this on Polymarket
1.90 to $2.00
3.6%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.90 to $2.00
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$956
Trade this on Polymarket
2.40 to $2.50
1.7%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.40 to $2.50
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$418
Trade this on Polymarket
2.70
1.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.70
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$406
Trade this on Polymarket
1.90
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.90
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
2.1¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,762 (47.6x)
Volume
$441
Trade this on Polymarket
2.50 to $2.60
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.50 to $2.60
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: fred.stlouisfed.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: FRED

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 18.8¢
  • Above 19.0¢
  • Above 19.2¢

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 18.8¢ for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "US electricity price in October". Above 18.8¢ leads at 98.5%. Next is Above 19.0¢ at 97.5%. $13K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 10, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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