The Prediction Markets

US GDP growth in Q2 2026?

Closed
Jul 30, 2026
Traded
$98K
Venues
Kalshi
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Jul 30, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 125 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 0.0%
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 3021 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.0%
Last price
96%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
96¢
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 0.5%
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 3021 h agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.5%
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.0%
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 3021 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.0%
Last price
84%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.5%
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 3021 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.5%
Last price
82%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.0%
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 3021 h agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.0%
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.5%
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 3021 h agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.5%
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$37K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.0%
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 3021 h agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.0%
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.5%
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 3021 h agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.5%
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.0%
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 3021 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.0%
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 0.0%
  • Above 0.5%
  • Above 1.0%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "US GDP growth in Q2 2026?". Above 0.0% last traded at 96%. Next is Above 0.5% at 95%. $98K has traded across 9 outcomes on Kalshi. The market closed on Jul 30, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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