The Prediction Markets

US headline CPI inflation in December 2031

Closes
Feb 1, 2032, in 64 months
Traded
$3K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
5 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 3.5% 94%

Next is Above 0.0% at 78%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 3.5%
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 5 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.5%
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
35¢
Volume
$552
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 0.0%
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 5 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.0%
Last price
78%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
78¢
Volume
$16
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.0%
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.0%
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$78
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 0.5%
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 5 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.5%
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Volume
$81
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.5%
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 5 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.5%
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Volume
$25
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.5%
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 5 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.5%
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Volume
$68
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.0%
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 5 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.0%
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.0%
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 5 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.0%
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Volume
$24
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.0%
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.0%
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$621
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.5%
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 5 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.5%
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Volume
$8
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 3 more outcomes
Above 5.0%
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.0%
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$314
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6.0%
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.0%
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.5%
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.5%
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$89
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 3.5%
  • Above 0.0%
  • Above 1.0%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "US headline CPI inflation in December 2031". Above 3.5% leads at 94%. Next is Above 0.0% at 78%. $3K has traded across 13 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 1, 2032.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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