The Prediction Markets

US imports of goods from China in 2026

Closes
Feb 4, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$4K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Below $300 billion 76%

Next is Below $280 billion at 57%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Below $300 billion
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $300 billion
Last price
76%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$711
Trade this on Kalshi
Below $280 billion
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $280 billion
Last price
57%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$962
Trade this on Kalshi
Below $260 billion
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $260 billion
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$586
Trade this on Kalshi
Below $240 billion
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $240 billion
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Below $220 billion
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $220 billion
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$314
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: FRED

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Below $300 billion
  • Below $280 billion
  • Below $260 billion

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "US imports of goods from China in 2026". Below $300 billion leads at 76%. Next is Below $280 billion at 57%. $4K has traded across 5 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 4, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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