The Prediction Markets

US-Iran nuclear deal?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$8.8M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
3 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Before Jan 20, 2029 36%

Next is Before Jan 1, 2028 at 31%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Before Jan 20, 2029
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 20, 2029
Last price
36%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$132K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Jan 1, 2028
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 1, 2028
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$126K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Feb 1, 2027
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Feb 1, 2027
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$31K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Mar 1, 2027
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Mar 1, 2027
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$84K
Trade this on Kalshi
Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$235K
Trade this on Polymarket
5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$272K
Trade this on Polymarket
Dilution of Iran's Uranium
12%
Polymarket 12%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dilution of Iran's Uranium
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$202K
Trade this on Polymarket
Before Jan 1, 2027
9.9%
Kalshi 9.9%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 1, 2027
Last price
9.9%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
7.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$1.8M
Trade this on Kalshi
1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium
9.5%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$187K
Trade this on Polymarket
Enriched Uranium Surrender
9%
Polymarket 9%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Enriched Uranium Surrender
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$101K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 4 more outcomes
Iran Reconstruction Funding
9%
Polymarket 9%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Iran Reconstruction Funding
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$341K
Trade this on Polymarket
Before Dec 1, 2026
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Dec 1, 2026
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$304K
Trade this on Kalshi
Yes
5.7%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 3 h agoPolymarket 11.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 4.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yes
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
4.5¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,222 (22.2x)
Volume
$280K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Yes
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Before Nov 1, 2026
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Nov 1, 2026
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1.3M
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: congress.gov
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The New York Times, the Associated Press, Reuters

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Before Jan 20, 2029
  • Before Jan 1, 2028
  • Before Feb 1, 2027

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Before Jan 20, 2029 for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "US-Iran nuclear deal?". Before Jan 20, 2029 leads at 36%. Next is Before Jan 1, 2028 at 31%. $8.8M has traded across 14 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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