The Prediction Markets

US labor force participation rate at year-end 2028

Closes
Jan 5, 2029, in 27 months
Traded
$14K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 56.00% 98%

Next is Above 58.00% at 94%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 56.00%
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 56.00%
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 58.00%
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 58.00%
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 56.50%
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 56.50%
Last price
93%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$60
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 57.00%
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 57.00%
Last price
93%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 57.50%
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 57.50%
Last price
93%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 58.50%
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 58.50%
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 59.00%
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 59.00%
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 59.50%
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 59.50%
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 60.00%
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 60.00%
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 60.50%
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 60.50%
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 7 more outcomes
Above 61.00%
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 61.00%
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 61.50%
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 61.50%
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 62.00%
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 62.00%
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 62.50%
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 62.50%
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 63.00%
5.5%
Kalshi 5.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 63.00%
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 63.50%
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 63.50%
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 64.00%
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 64.00%
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Trading Economics

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 56.00%
  • Above 58.00%
  • Above 56.50%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "US labor force participation rate at year-end 2028". Above 56.00% leads at 98%. Next is Above 58.00% at 94%. $14K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 5, 2029.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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