The Prediction Markets

US labor force participation rate at year-end 2029

Closes
Jan 4, 2030, in 39 months
Traded
$4K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 56.00% 98%

Next is Above 56.50% at 96%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 56.00%
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, just nowBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 56.00%
Last price
98%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$950
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 56.50%
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, just nowBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 56.50%
Last price
96%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 58.00%
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, just nowBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 58.00%
Last price
93%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$488
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 57.00%
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, just nowBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 57.00%
Last price
91%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$25
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 57.50%
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, just nowBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 57.50%
Last price
90%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$25
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 58.50%
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, just nowBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 58.50%
Last price
90%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 59.00%
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, just nowBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 59.00%
Last price
82%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 59.50%
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, just nowBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 59.50%
Last price
71%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 60.00%
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, just nowBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 60.00%
Last price
61%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 60.50%
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, just nowBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 60.50%
Last price
53%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$25
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 7 more outcomes
Above 61.00%
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, just nowBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 61.00%
Last price
41%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$25
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 61.50%
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, just nowBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 61.50%
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 62.00%
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, just nowBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 62.00%
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 62.50%
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, just nowBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 62.50%
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 63.00%
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, just nowBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 63.00%
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 63.50%
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, just nowBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 63.50%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 64.00%
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, just nowBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 64.00%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Trading Economics

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 56.00%
  • Above 56.50%
  • Above 58.00%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "US labor force participation rate at year-end 2029". Above 56.00% leads at 98%. Next is Above 56.50% at 96%. $4K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 4, 2030.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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