The Prediction Markets

US new home · Median sales price in September

Closes
Oct 27, 2026, in 4 days
Traded
$2K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above $365,000 97%

Next is Above $370,000 at 97%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above $365,000
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 16s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above $365,000
Last price
97%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
97¢
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $370,000
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $370,000
Last price
97%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$417
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $375,000
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $375,000
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $380,000
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $380,000
Last price
87%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$148
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $385,000
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $385,000
Last price
77%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $390,000
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $390,000
Last price
62%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$127
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $395,000
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $395,000
Last price
55%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$222
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $400,000
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $400,000
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$46
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $405,000
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $405,000
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$568
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $410,000
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $410,000
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$56
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $415,000
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $415,000
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$131
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $420,000
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $420,000
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$283
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: FRED

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above $365,000
  • Above $370,000
  • Above $375,000

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "US new home · Median sales price in September". Above $365,000 leads at 97%. Next is Above $370,000 at 97%. $2K has traded across 12 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 27, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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