The Prediction Markets

US nominal GDP growth in 2026

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$237K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Above 0.0% 97.5%

Next is Above 0.5% at 97%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 0.0%
97.5%
Kalshi 97.5%polled, 48s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.0%
Last price
97.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
95¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 0.5%
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 48s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.5%
Last price
97%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
94¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.0%
96.5%
Kalshi 96.5%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.0%
Last price
96.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.5%
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.5%
Last price
96%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.0%
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.0%
Last price
96%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.5%
95.5%
Kalshi 95.5%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.5%
Last price
95.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.0%
95.5%
Kalshi 95.5%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.0%
Last price
95.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.5%
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.5%
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.0%
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.0%
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.5%
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.5%
Last price
90%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$490
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 19 more outcomes
Above 5.0%
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.0%
Last price
89%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$37
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.5%
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.5%
Last price
79%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$130
Trade this on Kalshi
3.1%
59.2%
Polymarket 59.2%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 59.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $168 (1.68x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.1%
Last price
59.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59.6¢
Sell Yes
58.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$168 (1.68x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.0%
53.2%
Polymarket 13.2%polled, 48s agoPolymarket 66.5%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 15.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $654 (6.54x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.0%
Last price
13.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15.3¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$654 (6.54x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
3.0%
Last price
66.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$47K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 6.0%
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.0%
Last price
47%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$913
Trade this on Kalshi
2.0–2.5%
43.4%
Polymarket 55%polled, 2 min agoPolymarket 8.5%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.0–2.5%
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
2.0–2.5%
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.5%
43.2%
Polymarket 43.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 48.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $207 (2.07x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.5%
Last price
43.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
48.2¢
Sell Yes
38.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$207 (2.07x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.5–3.0%
15%
Polymarket 15%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.5–3.0%
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.2%
14.9%
Polymarket 14.9%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.2%
Last price
14.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
12.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.6%
3.7%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.6%
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.3%
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.3%
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.9%
3.1%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 5.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,961 (19.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.9%
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.1¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,961 (19.6x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.5–2.0%
2.6%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 2 min agoPolymarket 4.5%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.5–2.0%
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
1.5–2.0%
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.4%
2.4%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.4%
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.0–1.5%
0.9%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 2 min agoPolymarket 2.9%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.0–1.5%
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
1.0–1.5%
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.5%
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.5%
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
0.5%
0.4%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 2 min agoPolymarket 0.6%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.5%
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
0.5%
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.7%+
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.7%+
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
0.5–1.0%
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 2 min agoPolymarket 0.3%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.5–1.0%
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
0.5–1.0%
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: bea.gov, imf.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 0.0%
  • Above 0.5%
  • Above 1.0%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 0.0% for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "US nominal GDP growth in 2026". Above 0.0% leads at 97.5%. Next is Above 0.5% at 97%. $237K has traded across 29 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 28, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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