The Prediction Markets

US real GDP growth in Q1 2027?

Closes
Apr 29, 2027, in 6 months
Traded
$95K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 0.0% 95%

Next is Above 0.5% at 88%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 0.0%
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.0%
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$326
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 0.5%
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.5%
Last price
88%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$520
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.0%
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.0%
Last price
67%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$592
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.5%
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.5%
Last price
61%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$271
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.0%
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.0%
Last price
54%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$894
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.5%
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.5%
Last price
39%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$387
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.0%
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.0%
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$288
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.5%
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.5%
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$55K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.0%
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.0%
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$37K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 0.0%
  • Above 0.5%
  • Above 1.0%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "US real GDP growth in Q1 2027?". Above 0.0% leads at 95%. Next is Above 0.5% at 88%. $95K has traded across 9 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Apr 29, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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