The Prediction Markets

US real GDP growth in Q2 2027?

Closes
Jul 29, 2027, in 9 months
Traded
$16K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 0.0% 93%

Next is Above 0.5% at 85%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 0.0%
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.0%
Last price
93%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$655
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 0.5%
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.5%
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$453
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.0%
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.0%
Last price
68%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$257
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.5%
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.5%
Last price
58%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$531
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.0%
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.0%
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$642
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.5%
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.5%
Last price
43%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$352
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.0%
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.0%
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$360
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.5%
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.5%
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.0%
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.0%
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 0.0%
  • Above 0.5%
  • Above 1.0%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "US real GDP growth in Q2 2027?". Above 0.0% leads at 93%. Next is Above 0.5% at 85%. $16K has traded across 9 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jul 29, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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