The Prediction Markets

US real GDP growth in Q4 2026?

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$294K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 0.0% 94%

Next is Above 0.5% at 91%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 0.0%
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.0%
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$138
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 0.5%
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.5%
Last price
91%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$376
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.0%
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.0%
Last price
74%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.5%
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.5%
Last price
63%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
3.1%
59.2%
Polymarket 59.2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 59.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $168 (1.68x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.1%
Last price
59.2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
59.6¢
Sell Yes
58.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$168 (1.68x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 2.0%
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.0%
Last price
58%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
3.0%
52.8%
Polymarket 13.2%polled, 3 min agoPolymarket 66%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $654 (6.54x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.0%
Last price
13.2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
15.3¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$654 (6.54x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
3.0%
Last price
66%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$47K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 2.5%
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.5%
Last price
45%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$407
Trade this on Kalshi
2.0–2.5%
43.4%
Polymarket 55%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 8.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.0–2.5%
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
2.0–2.5%
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.5%
43.2%
Polymarket 43.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 48.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $207 (2.07x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.5%
Last price
43.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
48.2¢
Sell Yes
38.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$207 (2.07x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 15 more outcomes
Above 3.0%
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.0%
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$161
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.5%
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.5%
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$53K
Trade this on Kalshi
2.5–3.0%
16%
Polymarket 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.5–3.0%
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.2%
14%
Polymarket 14%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 15.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $629 (6.29x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.2%
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
15.9¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$629 (6.29x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 4.0%
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.0%
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$929
Trade this on Kalshi
3.6%
3.8%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.6%
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.3%
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.3%
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.9%
3.1%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 5.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,961 (19.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.9%
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
5.1¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,961 (19.6x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.5–2.0%
2.7%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.5–2.0%
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
1.5–2.0%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.7¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,299 (13.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.4%
2.4%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.4%
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.0–1.5%
0.9%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 2.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.0–1.5%
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
1.0–1.5%
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.5%
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.5%
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
0.5%
0.4%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.5%
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
0.5%
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.7%+
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.7%+
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
0.5–1.0%
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.5–1.0%
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
0.5–1.0%
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: bea.gov, imf.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 0.0%
  • Above 0.5%
  • Above 1.0%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 0.0% for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "US real GDP growth in Q4 2026?". Above 0.0% leads at 94%. Next is Above 0.5% at 91%. $294K has traded across 25 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 28, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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