The Prediction Markets

US recession by end of 2026?

Closes
Jan 31, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$6.1M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Yes 4.4%

The venues differ most on Yes (Polymarket 6.5%, Kalshi 3%), a 3.5-point gap.

Yes 4.4%No 95.6%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

1 of 2 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
YesArb
4.4%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 39s agoKalshi 3%live, just nowBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yes
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2.3M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Starts
Price
3%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$3.7M
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution rules differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Buying on Kalshi at 4¢ and selling on Polymarket at 6¢ nets 200 bps before fees.

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Yes on Kalshi at 4¢, sell on Polymarket at 6¢ (200 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Different bets: these contracts settle on different rules

Where they differ

  • Polymarket also resolves Yes on an NBER recession announcement; Kalshi only on two consecutive negative BEA quarters.
  • Quarter windows differ (e.g. Polymarket Q2 2025-Q4 2026; Kalshi 'this year' covers 2025 or 2026).
  • Trading closes at different times: Jan 31, 2027, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 31, 2027, 1:25 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: bea.gov
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Show full rule comparison
  • Polymarket also resolves Yes on an NBER recession announcement; Kalshi only on two consecutive negative BEA quarters.
  • Quarter windows differ (e.g. Polymarket Q2 2025-Q4 2026; Kalshi 'this year' covers 2025 or 2026).
  • Trading closes Jan 31, 2027, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 31, 2027, 1:25 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The leading outcome on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Yes

Live prices for Yes

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Cover Yes and No across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "US recession by end of 2026?". Yes leads at 4.4%. $6.1M has traded across 1 outcome on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 31, 2027.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met: 1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then. This market will remain open until either i) one of the specified conditions is met; or ii) the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2026 is released. If the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2026 has not been released by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available releases at that time. The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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