The Prediction Markets

US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$5.8M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
2 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Before 2027 5.1%

Next is Reza Pahlavi at 5%. The venues differ most on Yes (Polymarket 3.7%, Kalshi 5.1%), a 1.4-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Before 2027
5.1%
Kalshi 5.1%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 5.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,887 (18.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before 2027
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
5.3¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,887 (18.9x)
Volume
$1.1M
Trade this on Kalshi
Reza Pahlavi
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Reza Pahlavi
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2.0M
Trade this on Kalshi
YesArb
4.7%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 4 min agoKalshi 5.1%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yes
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$644K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Yes
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
5.6¢
Sell Yes
5.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,786 (17.9x)
Volume
$2.1M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 4¢ and selling on Kalshi at 5.1¢ nets 110 bps before fees.

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Yes on Polymarket at 4¢, sell on Kalshi at 5.1¢ (110 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The Guardian, local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in Iran, Reza Pahlavi
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Before 2027
  • Reza Pahlavi
  • Yes

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Before 2027 for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?". Before 2027 leads at 5.1%. Next is Reza Pahlavi at 5%. $5.8M has traded across 3 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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