The Prediction Markets

US seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker by...?

Closed
Mar 7, 2026
Traded
$41K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Mar 7, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 222 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
March 15
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5336 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
March 15
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 222 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$41K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The leading outcome on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • March 15

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "US seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker by...?". March 15 last traded at 0.1%. $41K has traded across 1 outcome on Polymarket. The market closed on Mar 7, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if U.S. government forces seize an Iran-linked oil tanker between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker” refers to the seizure of any oil ship which is described by a consensus of credible sources as Iranian, Iran-linked, or as directly and regularly involved in the transportation of Iranian oil. A tanker’s limited prior transportation of Iranian oil, without such a qualifying description, will not alone qualify. U.S. government forces refer to any active U.S. military (including U.S. Coast Guard), law enforcement, or intelligence personnel or contractors. Seizes refers to U.S. forces taking custody of or asserting operational control of the vessel, including boarding and taking control of the vessel, detaining the vessel indefinitely, or forcefully rerouting the vessel to a U.S.-controlled port.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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