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What the markets expect
2.6% 76.5%
Next is 0.2% at 32.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
2.6%76.5%76.5%76¢ bid, 77¢ askpolled, 4 min agoNot listed77¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $130 (1.30x)2.6%76.5%Polymarket 76.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 77¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
2.6%
76.5%
76.5%
76¢ bid, 77¢ ask
polled, 4 min ago
Not listed
77¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $130 (1.30x)
2.6%
76.5%
Polymarket 76.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 77¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 2.6%
- Last price
- 76.5%
- As of
- Polled 4 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 77¢
- Sell Yes
- 76¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $130 (1.30x)
- Volume
- $3K
0.2%32.5%32.5%32¢ bid, 33¢ askpolled, 32s agoNot listed33¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $303 (3.03x)0.2%32.5%Polymarket 32.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
0.2%
32.5%
32.5%
32¢ bid, 33¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
Not listed
33¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $303 (3.03x)
0.2%
32.5%
Polymarket 32.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 0.2%
- Last price
- 32.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 33¢
- Sell Yes
- 32¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $303 (3.03x)
- Volume
- $2K
0.3%31.5%31.5%31¢ bid, 32¢ askpolled, 32s agoNot listed32¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $313 (3.13x)0.3%31.5%Polymarket 31.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
0.3%
31.5%
31.5%
31¢ bid, 32¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
Not listed
32¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $313 (3.13x)
0.3%
31.5%
Polymarket 31.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 0.3%
- Last price
- 31.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 32¢
- Sell Yes
- 31¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $313 (3.13x)
- Volume
- $884
0.1%19%19%18¢ bid, 20¢ askpolled, 32s agoNot listed20¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $500 (5.00x)0.1%19%Polymarket 19%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
0.1%
19%
19%
18¢ bid, 20¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
Not listed
20¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $500 (5.00x)
0.1%
19%
Polymarket 19%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 0.1%
- Last price
- 19%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 20¢
- Sell Yes
- 18¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $500 (5.00x)
- Volume
- $558
0.4%12.5%12.5%11¢ bid, 14¢ askpolled, 32s agoNot listed14¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $714 (7.14x)0.4%12.5%Polymarket 12.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
0.4%
12.5%
12.5%
11¢ bid, 14¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
Not listed
14¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $714 (7.14x)
0.4%
12.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 0.4%
- Last price
- 12.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 14¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $714 (7.14x)
- Volume
- $861
3.0%8.4%8.4%0.5¢ bid, 16.3¢ askpolled, 4 min agoNot listed16.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $613 (6.13x)3.0%8.4%Polymarket 8.4%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 16.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $613 (6.13x)
3.0%
8.4%
8.4%
0.5¢ bid, 16.3¢ ask
polled, 4 min ago
Not listed
16.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $613 (6.13x)
3.0%
8.4%
Polymarket 8.4%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 16.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $613 (6.13x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 3.0%
- Last price
- 8.4%
- As of
- Polled 4 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 16.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $613 (6.13x)
- Volume
- $398
2.7%6.9%6.9%5¢ bid, 8.7¢ askpolled, 4 min agoNot listed8.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,149 (11.5x)2.7%6.9%Polymarket 6.9%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 8.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,149 (11.5x)
2.7%
6.9%
6.9%
5¢ bid, 8.7¢ ask
polled, 4 min ago
Not listed
8.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,149 (11.5x)
2.7%
6.9%
Polymarket 6.9%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 8.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,149 (11.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 2.7%
- Last price
- 6.9%
- As of
- Polled 4 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 8.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,149 (11.5x)
- Volume
- $530
2.5%5.4%5.4%1.7¢ bid, 9.1¢ askpolled, 4 min agoNot listed9.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,099 (11.0x)2.5%5.4%Polymarket 5.4%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 9.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,099 (11.0x)
2.5%
5.4%
5.4%
1.7¢ bid, 9.1¢ ask
polled, 4 min ago
Not listed
9.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,099 (11.0x)
2.5%
5.4%
Polymarket 5.4%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 9.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,099 (11.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 2.5%
- Last price
- 5.4%
- As of
- Polled 4 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 9.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,099 (11.0x)
- Volume
- $1K
Above 435.04%Not listed4%— bid, 7¢ askpolled, 32s ago7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Above 435.04%Kalshi 4%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Above 435.0
4%
Not listed
4%
— bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Above 435.0
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 435.0
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $400
Above 435.34%Not listed4%— bid, 6¢ askpolled, 32s ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Above 435.34%Kalshi 4%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Above 435.3
4%
Not listed
4%
— bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Above 435.3
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 435.3
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $41
Show 18 more outcomesHide 18 outcomes
Above 435.44%Not listed4%— bid, 6¢ askpolled, 32s ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Above 435.44%Kalshi 4%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Above 435.4
4%
Not listed
4%
— bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Above 435.4
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 435.4
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $41
Above 435.54%Not listed4%— bid, 6¢ askpolled, 32s ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Above 435.54%Kalshi 4%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Above 435.5
4%
Not listed
4%
— bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Above 435.5
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 435.5
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $41
Above 435.94%Not listed4%— bid, 6¢ askpolled, 32s ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Above 435.94%Kalshi 4%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Above 435.9
4%
Not listed
4%
— bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Above 435.9
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 435.9
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $112
0.0%3.6%3.6%0.7¢ bid, 6.4¢ askpolled, 32s agoNot listed6.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)0.0%3.6%Polymarket 3.6%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 6.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
0.0%
3.6%
3.6%
0.7¢ bid, 6.4¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
Not listed
6.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
0.0%
3.6%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 6.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 0.0%
- Last price
- 3.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,563 (15.6x)
- Volume
- $560
Above 435.13%Not listed3%— bid, 6¢ askpolled, 32s ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Above 435.13%Kalshi 3%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Above 435.1
3%
Not listed
3%
— bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Above 435.1
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 435.1
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $300
Above 435.23%Not listed3%— bid, 6¢ askpolled, 32s ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Above 435.23%Kalshi 3%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Above 435.2
3%
Not listed
3%
— bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Above 435.2
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 435.2
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $141
Above 435.73%Not listed3%— bid, 6¢ askpolled, 32s ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Above 435.73%Kalshi 3%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Above 435.7
3%
Not listed
3%
— bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Above 435.7
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 435.7
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
Above 435.83%Not listed3%— bid, 6¢ askpolled, 32s ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Above 435.83%Kalshi 3%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Above 435.8
3%
Not listed
3%
— bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Above 435.8
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 435.8
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
Above 436.02%Not listed2%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 32s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Above 436.02%Kalshi 2%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Above 436.0
2%
Not listed
2%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Above 436.0
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 436.0
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $470
0.5%1.7%1.7%0.3¢ bid, 3.1¢ askpolled, 32s agoNot listed3.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)0.5%1.7%Polymarket 1.7%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
0.5%
1.7%
1.7%
0.3¢ bid, 3.1¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
Not listed
3.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
0.5%
1.7%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 0.5%
- Last price
- 1.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,226 (32.3x)
- Volume
- $212
2.2%1.6%1.6%0.3¢ bid, 2.9¢ askpolled, 4 min agoNot listed2.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)2.2%1.6%Polymarket 1.6%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
2.2%
1.6%
1.6%
0.3¢ bid, 2.9¢ ask
polled, 4 min ago
Not listed
2.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
2.2%
1.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 2.2%
- Last price
- 1.6%
- As of
- Polled 4 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,448 (34.5x)
- Volume
- $288
2.3%1.6%1.6%0.3¢ bid, 2.9¢ askpolled, 4 min agoNot listed2.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)2.3%1.6%Polymarket 1.6%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
2.3%
1.6%
1.6%
0.3¢ bid, 2.9¢ ask
polled, 4 min ago
Not listed
2.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
2.3%
1.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 2.3%
- Last price
- 1.6%
- As of
- Polled 4 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,448 (34.5x)
- Volume
- $258
2.4%1.6%1.6%0.3¢ bid, 2.9¢ askpolled, 4 min agoNot listed2.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)2.4%1.6%Polymarket 1.6%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
2.4%
1.6%
1.6%
0.3¢ bid, 2.9¢ ask
polled, 4 min ago
Not listed
2.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
2.4%
1.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 2.4%
- Last price
- 1.6%
- As of
- Polled 4 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,448 (34.5x)
- Volume
- $276
Above 435.61%Not listed1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 32s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Above 435.61%Kalshi 1%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Above 435.6
1%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Above 435.6
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 435.6
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $165
0.6%+1%1%0.2¢ bid, 1.7¢ askpolled, 32s agoNot listed1.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)0.6%+1%Polymarket 1%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
0.6%+
1%
1%
0.2¢ bid, 1.7¢ ask
polled, 32s ago
Not listed
1.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
0.6%+
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 0.6%+
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,882 (58.8x)
- Volume
- $374
3.1%0.7%0.7%0.1¢ bid, 1.2¢ askpolled, 4 min agoNot listed1.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)3.1%0.7%Polymarket 0.7%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
3.1%
0.7%
0.7%
0.1¢ bid, 1.2¢ ask
polled, 4 min ago
Not listed
1.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
3.1%
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 3.1%
- Last price
- 0.7%
- As of
- Polled 4 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $8,333 (83.3x)
- Volume
- $296
2.8%0.6%0.6%0.1¢ bid, 1¢ askpolled, 4 min agoNot listed1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $10,000 (100x)2.8%0.6%Polymarket 0.6%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
2.8%
0.6%
0.6%
0.1¢ bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 4 min ago
Not listed
1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
2.8%
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 2.8%
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled 4 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $280
2.9%0.6%0.6%0.1¢ bid, 1¢ askpolled, 4 min agoNot listed1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $10,000 (100x)2.9%0.6%Polymarket 0.6%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
2.9%
0.6%
0.6%
0.1¢ bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 4 min ago
Not listed
1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
2.9%
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 2.9%
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled 4 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $299
Who resolves this market
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- 2.6%
- 0.2%
- 0.3%
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Kalshi
Kalshi doesn’t list 2.6% for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "US shelter CPI in October". 2.6% leads at 76.5%. Next is 0.2% at 32.5%. $14K has traded across 28 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 10, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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