The Prediction Markets

U.S. tariff rate on China on December 31, 2026?

Closes
Dec 31, 2026, in 2 months
Traded
$23K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
2 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 3% 98%

Next is 5–15% at 87.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 3%
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3%
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$273
Trade this on Kalshi
5–15%
87.5%
Polymarket 87.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 90¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Polymarket
Contract
5–15%
Last price
87.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 4%
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4%
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$411
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5%
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5%
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$202
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6%
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6%
Last price
79%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$208
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7%
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7%
Last price
76%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 8%
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 8%
Last price
69%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 9%
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 9%
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 10%
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 10%
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
15–25%
8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
15–25%
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 6 more outcomes
Above 11%
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 11%
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$272
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 12%
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 12%
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$59
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 13%
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 13%
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
5%
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 7.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
5%
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
7.1¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,408 (14.1x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
25–35%
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 5.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,923 (19.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
25–35%
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
5.2¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,923 (19.2x)
Volume
$971
Trade this on Polymarket
35%+
2.1%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
35%+
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: FRED

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 3%
  • 5–15%
  • Above 4%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 3% for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "U.S. tariff rate on China on December 31, 2026?". Above 3% leads at 98%. Next is 5–15% at 87.5%. $23K has traded across 16 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate). Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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