The Prediction Markets

US Trade Deficit in 2026?

Closes
May 1, 2027, in 6 months
Traded
$41K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
2 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 170‎ billion 96%

Next is 800–900B at 44%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 170‎ billion
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 170‎ billion
Last price
96%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
800–900B
44%
Polymarket 44%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 62¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Polymarket
Contract
800–900B
Last price
44%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
700–800B
20.5%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
700–800B
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$725
Trade this on Polymarket
900B–1T
15%
Polymarket 15%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
900B–1T
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
600–700B
10.2%
Polymarket 10.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 14.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $694 (6.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
600–700B
Last price
10.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
14.4¢
Sell Yes
5.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$694 (6.94x)
Volume
$551
Trade this on Polymarket
119.6‎ billion to 119.9‎ billion
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
119.6‎ billion to 119.9‎ billion
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$908
Trade this on Kalshi
65‎ billion to 74.9‎ billion
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
65‎ billion to 74.9‎ billion
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
95‎ billion to 104.9‎ billion
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
95‎ billion to 104.9‎ billion
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$794
Trade this on Kalshi
120‎ billion to 139.9‎ billion
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
120‎ billion to 139.9‎ billion
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$800
Trade this on Kalshi
140‎ billion to 170‎ billion
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
140‎ billion to 170‎ billion
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$718
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 10 more outcomes
500–600B
4.9%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
500–600B
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
2.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$454
Trade this on Polymarket
1T–1.1T
4.4%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,333 (13.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
1T–1.1T
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7.5¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,333 (13.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.1T+
4.2%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.1T+
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
500B
3.7%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
500B
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Polymarket
105‎ billion to 119.5‎ billion
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
105‎ billion to 119.5‎ billion
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$768
Trade this on Kalshi
Below 45‎ billion
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below 45‎ billion
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$824
Trade this on Kalshi
45‎ billion to 54.9‎ billion
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
45‎ billion to 54.9‎ billion
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$900
Trade this on Kalshi
55‎ billion to 64.9‎ billion
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
55‎ billion to 64.9‎ billion
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
75‎ billion to 84.9‎ billion
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
75‎ billion to 84.9‎ billion
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$989
Trade this on Kalshi
85‎ billion to 94.9‎ billion
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
85‎ billion to 94.9‎ billion
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: bea.gov
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 170‎ billion
  • 800–900B
  • 700–800B

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 170‎ billion for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "US Trade Deficit in 2026?". Above 170‎ billion leads at 96%. Next is 800–900B at 44%. $41K has traded across 20 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by May 1, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027. Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen. Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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