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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
Above 3.0% 96.5%
Next is Above 3.5% at 96%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Above 3.0%96.5%Not listed96.5%94¢ bid, 99¢ askpolled, 1 min ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Above 3.0%96.5%Kalshi 96.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above 3.0%
96.5%
Not listed
96.5%
94¢ bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above 3.0%
96.5%
Kalshi 96.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 3.0%
- Last price
- 96.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- 94¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Above 3.5%96%Not listed96%93¢ bid, 99¢ askpolled, 1 min ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Above 3.5%96%Kalshi 96%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above 3.5%
96%
Not listed
96%
93¢ bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above 3.5%
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 3.5%
- Last price
- 96%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- 93¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Above 4.0%75%Not listed75%75¢ bid, 79¢ askpolled, 1 min ago79¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $127 (1.27x)Above 4.0%75%Kalshi 75%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Above 4.0%
75%
Not listed
75%
75¢ bid, 79¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
79¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Above 4.0%
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.0%
- Last price
- 75%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 79¢
- Sell Yes
- 75¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $127 (1.27x)
- Volume
- $404
4.2%37.5%37.5%37¢ bid, 38¢ askpolled, 57s agoNot listed38¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $263 (2.63x)4.2%37.5%Polymarket 37.5%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
4.2%
37.5%
37.5%
37¢ bid, 38¢ ask
polled, 57s ago
Not listed
38¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $263 (2.63x)
4.2%
37.5%
Polymarket 37.5%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 4.2%
- Last price
- 37.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 38¢
- Sell Yes
- 37¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $263 (2.63x)
- Volume
- $4K
4.1%28%28%27¢ bid, 29¢ askpolled, 57s agoNot listed29¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $345 (3.45x)4.1%28%Polymarket 28%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
4.1%
28%
28%
27¢ bid, 29¢ ask
polled, 57s ago
Not listed
29¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $345 (3.45x)
4.1%
28%
Polymarket 28%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 4.1%
- Last price
- 28%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 29¢
- Sell Yes
- 27¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $345 (3.45x)
- Volume
- $6K
4.3%27.5%27.5%25¢ bid, 30¢ askpolled, 57s agoNot listed30¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $333 (3.33x)4.3%27.5%Polymarket 27.5%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
4.3%
27.5%
27.5%
25¢ bid, 30¢ ask
polled, 57s ago
Not listed
30¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $333 (3.33x)
4.3%
27.5%
Polymarket 27.5%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 4.3%
- Last price
- 27.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 30¢
- Sell Yes
- 25¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $333 (3.33x)
- Volume
- $3K
Above 4.5%21%Not listed21%15¢ bid, 21¢ askpolled, 1 min ago21¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $476 (4.76x)Above 4.5%21%Kalshi 21%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Above 4.5%
21%
Not listed
21%
15¢ bid, 21¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
21¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Above 4.5%
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.5%
- Last price
- 21%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 21¢
- Sell Yes
- 15¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $476 (4.76x)
- Volume
- $4K
4.0%6.2%6.2%4¢ bid, 8.3¢ askpolled, 57s agoNot listed8.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)4.0%6.2%Polymarket 6.2%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 8.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)
4.0%
6.2%
6.2%
4¢ bid, 8.3¢ ask
polled, 57s ago
Not listed
8.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)
4.0%
6.2%
Polymarket 6.2%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 8.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 4.0%
- Last price
- 6.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,205 (12.0x)
- Volume
- $963
Above 5.5%4%Not listed4%2¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 1 min ago9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Above 5.5%4%Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Above 5.5%
4%
Not listed
4%
2¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Above 5.5%
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 5.5%
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $1K
4.4%3.6%3.6%0.8¢ bid, 6.3¢ askpolled, 57s agoNot listed6.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)4.4%3.6%Polymarket 3.6%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 6.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
4.4%
3.6%
3.6%
0.8¢ bid, 6.3¢ ask
polled, 57s ago
Not listed
6.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
4.4%
3.6%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 6.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 4.4%
- Last price
- 3.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,587 (15.9x)
- Volume
- $1K
Show 14 more outcomesHide 14 outcomes
Above 5.0%3%Not listed3%3¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 1 min ago13¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $769 (7.69x)Above 5.0%3%Kalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Above 5.0%
3%
Not listed
3%
3¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
13¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Above 5.0%
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 5.0%
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
- Volume
- $3K
Above 6.0%2.5%Not listed2.5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Above 6.0%2.5%Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 6.0%
2.5%
Not listed
2.5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 6.0%
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 6.0%
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 6.5%2.5%Not listed2.5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Above 6.5%2.5%Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 6.5%
2.5%
Not listed
2.5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 6.5%
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 6.5%
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 7.0%2.5%Not listed2.5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Above 7.0%2.5%Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 7.0%
2.5%
Not listed
2.5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 7.0%
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 7.0%
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 7.5%2.5%Not listed2.5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Above 7.5%2.5%Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 7.5%
2.5%
Not listed
2.5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 7.5%
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 7.5%
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 8.0%2.5%Not listed2.5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Above 8.0%2.5%Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 8.0%
2.5%
Not listed
2.5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 8.0%
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 8.0%
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 8.5%2.5%Not listed2.5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Above 8.5%2.5%Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 8.5%
2.5%
Not listed
2.5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 8.5%
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 8.5%
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 9.0%2.5%Not listed2.5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Above 9.0%2.5%Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 9.0%
2.5%
Not listed
2.5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 9.0%
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 9.0%
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 9.5%2.5%Not listed2.5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Above 9.5%2.5%Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 9.5%
2.5%
Not listed
2.5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 9.5%
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 9.5%
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 10.0%2.5%Not listed2.5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Above 10.0%2.5%Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 10.0%
2.5%
Not listed
2.5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 10.0%
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 10.0%
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
4.6%0.9%0.9%0.1¢ bid, 1.7¢ askpolled, 57s agoNot listed1.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)4.6%0.9%Polymarket 0.9%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
4.6%
0.9%
0.9%
0.1¢ bid, 1.7¢ ask
polled, 57s ago
Not listed
1.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
4.6%
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 4.6%
- Last price
- 0.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,882 (58.8x)
- Volume
- $417
3.8%0.3%0.3%0.1¢ bid, 0.5¢ askpolled, 57s agoNot listed0.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $20,000 (200x)3.8%0.3%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
3.8%
0.3%
0.3%
0.1¢ bid, 0.5¢ ask
polled, 57s ago
Not listed
0.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $20,000 (200x)
3.8%
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 3.8%
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $20,000 (200x)
- Volume
- $467
4.5%0.3%0.3%0.1¢ bid, 0.5¢ askpolled, 57s agoNot listed0.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $20,000 (200x)4.5%0.3%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
4.5%
0.3%
0.3%
0.1¢ bid, 0.5¢ ask
polled, 57s ago
Not listed
0.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $20,000 (200x)
4.5%
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 4.5%
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $20,000 (200x)
- Volume
- $426
3.9%0.3%0.3%0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ askpolled, 57s agoNot listed0.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $25,000 (250x)3.9%0.3%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
3.9%
0.3%
0.3%
0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask
polled, 57s ago
Not listed
0.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
3.9%
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 3.9%
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $387
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Above 3.0%
- Above 3.5%
- Above 4.0%
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Polymarket
Polymarket doesn’t list Above 3.0% for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "US unemployment rate at year-end 2026". Above 3.0% leads at 96.5%. Next is Above 3.5% at 96%. $26K has traded across 24 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 8, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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