The Prediction Markets

US unemployment rate at year-end 2028

Closes
Jan 5, 2029, in 27 months
Traded
$2K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 3.0% 94.5%

Next is Above 3.5% at 90%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 3.0%
94.5%
Kalshi 94.5%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.0%
Last price
94.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.5%
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.5%
Last price
90%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.0%
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.0%
Last price
82%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.5%
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.5%
Last price
75%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.0%
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.0%
Last price
67%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.5%
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.5%
Last price
59%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6.0%
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.0%
Last price
46%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$52
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6.5%
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.5%
Last price
44%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7.0%
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.0%
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7.5%
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.5%
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 5 more outcomes
Above 8.0%
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 8.0%
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 8.5%
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 8.5%
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 9.0%
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 9.0%
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$902
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 9.5%
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 9.5%
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 10.0%
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 10.0%
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$502
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 3.0%
  • Above 3.5%
  • Above 4.0%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "US unemployment rate at year-end 2028". Above 3.0% leads at 94.5%. Next is Above 3.5% at 90%. $2K has traded across 15 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 5, 2029.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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