The Prediction Markets

US unemployment rate at year-end 2030

Closes
Jan 10, 2031, in 51 months
Traded
$6K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 3.0% 91%

Next is Above 3.5% at 82%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 3.0%
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.0%
Last price
91%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.5%
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.5%
Last price
82%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.0%
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.0%
Last price
76%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.5%
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.5%
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.0%
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.0%
Last price
65%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.5%
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.5%
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6.0%
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.0%
Last price
54%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 6.5%
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.5%
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7.0%
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.0%
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7.5%
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7.5%
Last price
36%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 5 more outcomes
Above 8.0%
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 8.0%
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 8.5%
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 8.5%
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 9.0%
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 9.0%
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 9.5%
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 9.5%
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 10.0%
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 10.0%
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 3.0%
  • Above 3.5%
  • Above 4.0%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "US unemployment rate at year-end 2030". Above 3.0% leads at 91%. Next is Above 3.5% at 82%. $6K has traded across 15 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 10, 2031.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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