The Prediction Markets

US used cars and trucks CPI for October

Closes
Nov 10, 2026, in 18 days
Traded
$9K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 178 98.5%

Next is Above 179 at 96%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 178
98.5%
Kalshi 98.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 178
Last price
98.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 179
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 179
Last price
96%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 180
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 180
Last price
62%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 181
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 181
Last price
45%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$601
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 183
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 183
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$900
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 182
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 182
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 184
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 184
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 185
5.5%
Kalshi 5.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 185
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 186
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 186
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 187
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 187
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 188
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 188
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: FRED

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 178
  • Above 179
  • Above 180

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "US used cars and trucks CPI for October". Above 178 leads at 98.5%. Next is Above 179 at 96%. $9K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 10, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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