The Prediction Markets

USD x Iranian rials End of November?

Closes
Dec 1, 2026, in 26 days
Traded
$2K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 h ago
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What the markets expect

3.0M+ 27.6%

Next is 2.8-2.9M at 14.9%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

3.0M+ 27.6%2.8-2.9M 14.9%2.6-2.7M 14%2.9-3.0M 12.3%2.5-2.6M 11.4%2 others 19.8%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
3.0M+
27.6%
Polymarket 31.5%(27.6% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.0M+
Last price
31.5%
Fair, margin removed
27.6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$401
Trade this on Polymarket
2.8-2.9M
14.9%
Polymarket 17%(14.9% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.8-2.9M
Last price
17%
Fair, margin removed
14.9%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$464
Trade this on Polymarket
2.6-2.7M
14%
Polymarket 16%(14% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.6-2.7M
Last price
16%
Fair, margin removed
14%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$371
Trade this on Polymarket
2.9-3.0M
12.3%
Polymarket 14%(12.3% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.9-3.0M
Last price
14%
Fair, margin removed
12.3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$316
Trade this on Polymarket
2.5-2.6M
11.4%
Polymarket 13%(11.4% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.5-2.6M
Last price
13%
Fair, margin removed
11.4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$324
Trade this on Polymarket
2.7-2.8M
11%
Polymarket 12.5%(11% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.7-2.8M
Last price
12.5%
Fair, margin removed
11%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$323
Trade this on Polymarket
2.5M
8.8%
Polymarket 10%(8.8% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.5M
Last price
10%
Fair, margin removed
8.8%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$282
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 3.0M+
  • 2.8-2.9M
  • 2.6-2.7M

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "USD x Iranian rials End of November?". 3.0M+ leads at 27.6%. Next is 2.8-2.9M at 14.9%. $2K has traded across 7 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the finalized USD exchange rate on Bonbast for November 30, 2026. If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. This market will resolve according to the finalized free-market USD exchange rate for the specified date as displayed on Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd), which publishes prices in Iranian toman, where 1 Iranian toman equals 10 Iranian rials (IRR). A daily figure will be considered finalized once the following day’s figure is released. Resolution will occur once the specified exchange rate data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered. If Iran redenominates the rial, or Bonbast changes the unit in which it displays the USD exchange rate, before the relevant figure has been finalized, the displayed figure will be converted into current Iranian rials at the official conversion ratio between the new unit and the current rial (for example, 1 new rial equals 10,000 current rials), and the converted figure will be used for resolution. The resolution source for this market will be Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd). If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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