The Prediction Markets

USD/JPY: Close Price End of 2026

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$7K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
4 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

150-160 43.8%

Next is 160-170 at 24.6%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

150-160 43.8%160-170 24.6%140 10.1%140-150 9.5%170-180 7.7%180+ 4.3%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
150-160
43.8%
Polymarket 45.5%(43.8% fair)polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
150-160
Last price
45.5%
Fair, margin removed
43.8%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
160-170
24.6%
Polymarket 25.5%(24.6% fair)polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
160-170
Last price
25.5%
Fair, margin removed
24.6%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
140
10.1%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
140
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$536
Trade this on Polymarket
140-150
9.5%
Polymarket 9.9%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 18.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $529 (5.29x)
Polymarket
Contract
140-150
Last price
9.9%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
18.9¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$529 (5.29x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Polymarket
170-180
7.7%
Polymarket 8%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
170-180
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$169
Trade this on Polymarket
180+
4.3%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
180+
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$233
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: investing.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 150-160
  • 160-170
  • 140

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "USD/JPY: Close Price End of 2026". 150-160 leads at 43.8%. Next is 160-170 at 24.6%. $7K has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the finalized Investing.com close price (“C”) for the USD/JPY daily candle on December 31, 2026. Data for the December 31, 2026 candle will be considered finalized once the next candle appears on the specified graph. If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. Resolution will occur once the specified close price is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to data from the latest 2026 date available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered. This market’s resolution will be based solely on information from the “C” figure located at the top of the USD/JPY Streaming Chart on Investing.com for the specified currency pair (https://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-jpy-chart). If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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