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What the markets expect
McAdams, 14+ pts 95.5%
Next is McAdams, 17+ pts at 94.8%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 20 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
McAdams, 14+ pts95.5%Not listed95.5%93.1¢ bid, 97.9¢ askpolled, 20 min ago97.9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $102 (1.02x)McAdams, 14+ pts95.5%Kalshi 95.5%polled, 20 min agoBest Yes 97.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
McAdams, 14+ pts
95.5%
Not listed
95.5%
93.1¢ bid, 97.9¢ ask
polled, 20 min ago
97.9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $102 (1.02x)
McAdams, 14+ pts
95.5%
Kalshi 95.5%polled, 20 min agoBest Yes 97.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- McAdams, 14+ pts
- Last price
- 95.5%
- As of
- Polled 20 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 97.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 93.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $102 (1.02x)
McAdams, 17+ pts94.8%Not listed94.8%91.8¢ bid, 97.8¢ askpolled, 20 min ago97.8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $102 (1.02x)McAdams, 17+ pts94.8%Kalshi 94.8%polled, 20 min agoBest Yes 97.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
McAdams, 17+ pts
94.8%
Not listed
94.8%
91.8¢ bid, 97.8¢ ask
polled, 20 min ago
97.8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $102 (1.02x)
McAdams, 17+ pts
94.8%
Kalshi 94.8%polled, 20 min agoBest Yes 97.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- McAdams, 17+ pts
- Last price
- 94.8%
- As of
- Polled 20 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 97.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 91.8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $102 (1.02x)
McAdams, 20+ pts90.7%Not listed90.7%90.1¢ bid, 97.8¢ askpolled, 20 min ago97.8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $102 (1.02x)McAdams, 20+ pts90.7%Kalshi 90.7%polled, 20 min agoBest Yes 97.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
McAdams, 20+ pts
90.7%
Not listed
90.7%
90.1¢ bid, 97.8¢ ask
polled, 20 min ago
97.8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $102 (1.02x)
McAdams, 20+ pts
90.7%
Kalshi 90.7%polled, 20 min agoBest Yes 97.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- McAdams, 20+ pts
- Last price
- 90.7%
- As of
- Polled 20 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 97.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 90.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $102 (1.02x)
- Volume
- $405
McAdams, 23+ pts86%Not listed86%86¢ bid, 96.2¢ askpolled, 20 min ago96.2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $104 (1.04x)McAdams, 23+ pts86%Kalshi 86%polled, 20 min agoBest Yes 96.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
McAdams, 23+ pts
86%
Not listed
86%
86¢ bid, 96.2¢ ask
polled, 20 min ago
96.2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $104 (1.04x)
McAdams, 23+ pts
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 20 min agoBest Yes 96.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- McAdams, 23+ pts
- Last price
- 86%
- As of
- Polled 20 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 96.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 86¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $104 (1.04x)
- Volume
- $122
McAdams, 26+ pts81%Not listed81%76¢ bid, 87¢ askpolled, 20 min ago87¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $115 (1.15x)McAdams, 26+ pts81%Kalshi 81%polled, 20 min agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
McAdams, 26+ pts
81%
Not listed
81%
76¢ bid, 87¢ ask
polled, 20 min ago
87¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $115 (1.15x)
McAdams, 26+ pts
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 20 min agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- McAdams, 26+ pts
- Last price
- 81%
- As of
- Polled 20 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 87¢
- Sell Yes
- 76¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $115 (1.15x)
- Volume
- $625
McAdams, 29+ pts75%Not listed75%64¢ bid, 75¢ askpolled, 20 min ago75¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $133 (1.33x)McAdams, 29+ pts75%Kalshi 75%polled, 20 min agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
McAdams, 29+ pts
75%
Not listed
75%
64¢ bid, 75¢ ask
polled, 20 min ago
75¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $133 (1.33x)
McAdams, 29+ pts
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 20 min agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- McAdams, 29+ pts
- Last price
- 75%
- As of
- Polled 20 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 75¢
- Sell Yes
- 64¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $133 (1.33x)
- Volume
- $7
McAdams, 32+ pts54.5%Not listed54.5%49¢ bid, 60¢ askpolled, 20 min ago60¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $167 (1.67x)McAdams, 32+ pts54.5%Kalshi 54.5%polled, 20 min agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
McAdams, 32+ pts
54.5%
Not listed
54.5%
49¢ bid, 60¢ ask
polled, 20 min ago
60¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $167 (1.67x)
McAdams, 32+ pts
54.5%
Kalshi 54.5%polled, 20 min agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- McAdams, 32+ pts
- Last price
- 54.5%
- As of
- Polled 20 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 60¢
- Sell Yes
- 49¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $167 (1.67x)
McAdams, 35+ pts35%Not listed35%33¢ bid, 45¢ askpolled, 20 min ago45¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $222 (2.22x)McAdams, 35+ pts35%Kalshi 35%polled, 20 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
McAdams, 35+ pts
35%
Not listed
35%
33¢ bid, 45¢ ask
polled, 20 min ago
45¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $222 (2.22x)
McAdams, 35+ pts
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 20 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- McAdams, 35+ pts
- Last price
- 35%
- As of
- Polled 20 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 45¢
- Sell Yes
- 33¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $222 (2.22x)
- Volume
- $20
Democrat 25-30%24.5%24.5%23¢ bid, 26¢ askpolled, 20 min agoNot listed26¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $385 (3.85x)Democrat 25-30%24.5%Polymarket 24.5%polled, 20 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Democrat 25-30%
24.5%
24.5%
23¢ bid, 26¢ ask
polled, 20 min ago
Not listed
26¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Democrat 25-30%
24.5%
Polymarket 24.5%polled, 20 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Democrat 25-30%
- Last price
- 24.5%
- As of
- Polled 20 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 26¢
- Sell Yes
- 23¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $385 (3.85x)
- Volume
- $962
McAdams, 38+ pts24%Not listed24%18¢ bid, 30¢ askpolled, 20 min ago30¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $333 (3.33x)McAdams, 38+ pts24%Kalshi 24%polled, 20 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
McAdams, 38+ pts
24%
Not listed
24%
18¢ bid, 30¢ ask
polled, 20 min ago
30¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $333 (3.33x)
McAdams, 38+ pts
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 20 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- McAdams, 38+ pts
- Last price
- 24%
- As of
- Polled 20 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 30¢
- Sell Yes
- 18¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $333 (3.33x)
Show 9 more outcomesHide 9 outcomes
Democrat 35-40%23.5%23.5%22¢ bid, 25¢ askpolled, 20 min agoNot listed25¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $400 (4.00x)Democrat 35-40%23.5%Polymarket 23.5%polled, 20 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Democrat 35-40%
23.5%
23.5%
22¢ bid, 25¢ ask
polled, 20 min ago
Not listed
25¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Democrat 35-40%
23.5%
Polymarket 23.5%polled, 20 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Democrat 35-40%
- Last price
- 23.5%
- As of
- Polled 20 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 25¢
- Sell Yes
- 22¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $400 (4.00x)
- Volume
- $3K
Democrat 40%+20.8%20.8%20.3¢ bid, 21.3¢ askpolled, 20 min agoNot listed21.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $469 (4.69x)Democrat 40%+20.8%Polymarket 20.8%polled, 20 min agoBest Yes 21.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $469 (4.69x)
Democrat 40%+
20.8%
20.8%
20.3¢ bid, 21.3¢ ask
polled, 20 min ago
Not listed
21.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $469 (4.69x)
Democrat 40%+
20.8%
Polymarket 20.8%polled, 20 min agoBest Yes 21.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $469 (4.69x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Democrat 40%+
- Last price
- 20.8%
- As of
- Polled 20 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 21.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 20.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $469 (4.69x)
- Volume
- $819
Democrat 20-25%14.5%14.5%12¢ bid, 17¢ askpolled, 20 min agoNot listed17¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $588 (5.88x)Democrat 20-25%14.5%Polymarket 14.5%polled, 20 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Democrat 20-25%
14.5%
14.5%
12¢ bid, 17¢ ask
polled, 20 min ago
Not listed
17¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Democrat 20-25%
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 20 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Democrat 20-25%
- Last price
- 14.5%
- As of
- Polled 20 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 17¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $588 (5.88x)
- Volume
- $3K
McAdams, 41+ pts13.1%Not listed13.1%7.2¢ bid, 19¢ askpolled, 20 min ago19¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $526 (5.26x)McAdams, 41+ pts13.1%Kalshi 13.1%polled, 20 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
McAdams, 41+ pts
13.1%
Not listed
13.1%
7.2¢ bid, 19¢ ask
polled, 20 min ago
19¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $526 (5.26x)
McAdams, 41+ pts
13.1%
Kalshi 13.1%polled, 20 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- McAdams, 41+ pts
- Last price
- 13.1%
- As of
- Polled 20 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 19¢
- Sell Yes
- 7.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $526 (5.26x)
Democrat 10-15%10.8%10.8%6.6¢ bid, 14.9¢ askpolled, 20 min agoNot listed14.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $671 (6.71x)Democrat 10-15%10.8%Polymarket 10.8%polled, 20 min agoBest Yes 14.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $671 (6.71x)
Democrat 10-15%
10.8%
10.8%
6.6¢ bid, 14.9¢ ask
polled, 20 min ago
Not listed
14.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $671 (6.71x)
Democrat 10-15%
10.8%
Polymarket 10.8%polled, 20 min agoBest Yes 14.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $671 (6.71x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Democrat 10-15%
- Last price
- 10.8%
- As of
- Polled 20 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 14.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 6.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $671 (6.71x)
- Volume
- $435
Democrat 15-20%6.8%6.8%4.2¢ bid, 9.4¢ askpolled, 20 min agoNot listed9.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,064 (10.6x)Democrat 15-20%6.8%Polymarket 6.8%polled, 20 min agoBest Yes 9.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,064 (10.6x)
Democrat 15-20%
6.8%
6.8%
4.2¢ bid, 9.4¢ ask
polled, 20 min ago
Not listed
9.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,064 (10.6x)
Democrat 15-20%
6.8%
Polymarket 6.8%polled, 20 min agoBest Yes 9.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,064 (10.6x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Democrat 15-20%
- Last price
- 6.8%
- As of
- Polled 20 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 9.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 4.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,064 (10.6x)
- Volume
- $1K
Democrat 30-35%5.8%5.8%1.6¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 20 min agoNot listed10¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Democrat 30-35%5.8%Polymarket 5.8%polled, 20 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Democrat 30-35%
5.8%
5.8%
1.6¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 20 min ago
Not listed
10¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Democrat 30-35%
5.8%
Polymarket 5.8%polled, 20 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Democrat 30-35%
- Last price
- 5.8%
- As of
- Polled 20 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $3K
Democrat 0-10%5.7%5.7%1.4¢ bid, 9.9¢ askpolled, 20 min agoNot listed9.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)Democrat 0-10%5.7%Polymarket 5.7%polled, 20 min agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Democrat 0-10%
5.7%
5.7%
1.4¢ bid, 9.9¢ ask
polled, 20 min ago
Not listed
9.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Democrat 0-10%
5.7%
Polymarket 5.7%polled, 20 min agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Democrat 0-10%
- Last price
- 5.7%
- As of
- Polled 20 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 9.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,010 (10.1x)
- Volume
- $346
Republican Wins3.2%3.2%0.9¢ bid, 5.4¢ askpolled, 20 min agoNot listed5.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)Republican Wins3.2%Polymarket 3.2%polled, 20 min agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Republican Wins
3.2%
3.2%
0.9¢ bid, 5.4¢ ask
polled, 20 min ago
Not listed
5.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Republican Wins
3.2%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 20 min agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Republican Wins
- Last price
- 3.2%
- As of
- Polled 20 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,852 (18.5x)
- Volume
- $594
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- McAdams, 14+ pts
- McAdams, 17+ pts
- McAdams, 20+ pts
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Polymarket
Polymarket doesn’t list McAdams, 14+ pts for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Utah's 1st District margin of victory". McAdams, 14+ pts leads at 95.5%. Next is McAdams, 17+ pts at 94.8%. $15K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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