The Prediction Markets

Vahn Lackey: Debut Date

Closes
Nov 1, 2031, in 61 months
Traded
$2K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Before Nov 1, 2031 91%

Next is Before Aug 1, 2030 at 90%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Before Nov 1, 2031
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Nov 1, 2031
Last price
91%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$539
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Aug 1, 2030
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Aug 1, 2030
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$318
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Nov 1, 2029
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Nov 1, 2029
Last price
89%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$264
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Nov 1, 2030
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Nov 1, 2030
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$433
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Aug 1, 2029
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Aug 1, 2029
Last price
86%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$288
Trade this on Kalshi
Before May 1, 2030
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before May 1, 2030
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$65
Trade this on Kalshi
Before May 1, 2029
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before May 1, 2029
Last price
75%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$423
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Nov 1, 2028
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Nov 1, 2028
Last price
44%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$18
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, the Governing League

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Before Nov 1, 2031
  • Before Aug 1, 2030
  • Before Nov 1, 2029

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Vahn Lackey: Debut Date". Before Nov 1, 2031 leads at 91%. Next is Before Aug 1, 2030 at 90%. $2K has traded across 8 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 1, 2031.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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