The Prediction Markets

Vail Resorts skier visits in Q1

Closes
Apr 8, 2027, in 6 months
Traded
$13K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 400,000 85%

Next is Above 450,000 at 59%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 400,000
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 400,000
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$547
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 450,000
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 450,000
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 500,000
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 500,000
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 550,000
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 550,000
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 600,000
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 600,000
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$953
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 650,000
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 650,000
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 700,000
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 700,000
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 750,000
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 750,000
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1,000,000
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1,000,000
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$280
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 800,000
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 800,000
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$296
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fiscal.ai

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 400,000
  • Above 450,000
  • Above 500,000

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Vail Resorts skier visits in Q1". Above 400,000 leads at 85%. Next is Above 450,000 at 59%. $13K has traded across 10 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Apr 8, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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