The Prediction Markets

Vallejo vs Sonego

Starts in 6 hKickoff
Traded
$3K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Lorenzo Sonego Set 1 O/U 9.5 73%

Next is Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Lorenzo Sonego Set 1 O/U 9.5 at 71.5%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Lorenzo Sonego Set 1 O/U 9.5
73%
Polymarket 73%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Lorenzo Sonego Set 1 O/U 9.5
Last price
73%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Lorenzo Sonego Set 1 O/U 9.5
71.5%
Polymarket 71.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Lorenzo Sonego Match O/U 21.5
Last price
71.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Lorenzo Sonego Set 1 O/U 9.5
52.5%
Polymarket 52.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Lorenzo Sonego Match O/U 22.5
Last price
52.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lorenzo Sonego
51%
Kalshi 51%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lorenzo Sonego
Last price
51%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$622
Trade this on Kalshi
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Lorenzo Sonego Set 1 O/U 9.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Lorenzo Sonego Set 2 Winner
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Lorenzo Sonego Set 1 O/U 9.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Lorenzo Sonego Set 1 Winner
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Vallejo
49.7%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 5 min agoKalshi 50%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Lorenzo Sonego
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$775
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 49¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 50¢.

Completed Match
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Completed Match
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Lorenzo Sonego Set 1 O/U 9.5
48.5%
Polymarket 48.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Lorenzo Sonego Game Spread +/-0.5
Last price
48.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Lorenzo Sonego Set 1 O/U 9.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Lorenzo Sonego Set 2 O/U 8.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Lorenzo Sonego Set 1 O/U 9.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Lorenzo Sonego Set 2 O/U 9.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Lorenzo Sonego Set 1 O/U 9.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Lorenzo Sonego Set 2 O/U 10.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Lorenzo Sonego Set 1 O/U 9.5
45.5%
Polymarket 45.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Lorenzo Sonego Match O/U 23.5
Last price
45.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Lorenzo Sonego Set 1 O/U 9.5
43%
Polymarket 43%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 86¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Lorenzo Sonego Set 1 O/U 8.5
Last price
43%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Lorenzo Sonego Set 1 O/U 9.5
39.5%
Polymarket 39.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 40¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Lorenzo Sonego Total Sets: O/U 2.5
Last price
39.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Lorenzo Sonego Set 1 O/U 9.5
33.5%
Polymarket 33.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Lorenzo Sonego Set 1 O/U 10.5
Last price
33.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Lorenzo Sonego Set 1 O/U 9.5
30.5%
Polymarket 30.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Lorenzo Sonego Set Handicap +/-1.5
Last price
30.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: atptour.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ATP
Show full rule comparison
  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
  • Trading closes Oct 31, 2026, 10:30 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 7, 2026, 10:10 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Lorenzo Sonego Set 1 O/U 9.5
  • Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Lorenzo Sonego Set 1 O/U 9.5
  • Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Lorenzo Sonego Set 1 O/U 9.5

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Lorenzo Sonego Set 1 O/U 9.5 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Vallejo vs Sonego". Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Lorenzo Sonego Set 1 O/U 9.5 leads at 73%. Next is Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Lorenzo Sonego Set 1 O/U 9.5 at 71.5%. $3K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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