The Prediction Markets

Valorant: CGN Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Project Blender Phase 2 Playoffs

Starts in 41 minKickoff
Traded
$12K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

CGN Esports 57.4%

Next is Map 2 Winner at 53.5%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
CGN Esports
57.4%
Polymarket 57.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 57%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 58¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Polymarket
Contract
Match Winner
Last price
57.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
CGN Esports
Last price
57%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$388
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 57¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 58¢.

Map 2 Winner
53.5%
Polymarket 53.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 78¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Polymarket
Contract
Map 2 Winner
Last price
53.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
51.5%
Polymarket 51.5%polled, 1 min ago
Polymarket
Contract
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
Last price
51.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
CGN Esports
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 1 min ago
Polymarket
Contract
Map Handicap: CGN (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 1 min ago
Polymarket
Contract
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Map 1 Winner
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 78¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Polymarket
Contract
Map 1 Winner
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 1 min ago
Polymarket
Contract
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
CGN Esports
49.5%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: CGN Esports (-2.5) vs Natus Vincere (+2.5)
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Polymarket
CGN Esports
49.5%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: CGN Esports (-2.5) vs Natus Vincere (+2.5)
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Polymarket
CGN Esports
49.5%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: CGN Esports (-2.5) vs Natus Vincere (+2.5)
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Polymarket
O/U 2.5 Games
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 1 min ago
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 2.5 Games
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Natus Vincere
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Natus Vincere
Last price
44%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$708
Trade this on Kalshi

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • If the game is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up.
  • Trading closes at different times: Oct 23, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 25, 2026, 8:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: twitch.tv
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Valorant, Gamers World, BO3
Show full rule comparison
  • If the game is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up.
  • Trading closes Oct 23, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 25, 2026, 8:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • CGN Esports
  • Map 2 Winner
  • Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5

Live prices for CGN Esports

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Top of book

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Best bid
—
Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Valorant: CGN Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Project Blender Phase 2 Playoffs". CGN Esports leads at 57.4%. Next is Map 2 Winner at 53.5%. $12K has traded across 12 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 23, 2026.

This market refers to the Valorant Semifinal 1 match between CGN Esports and Natus Vincere in the Project Blender Phase 2 Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 23, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "CGN Esports" if CGN Esports win the match against Natus Vincere. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win the match against CGN Esports. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 6, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 23, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://vlr.gg. However, if https://vlr.gg has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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