The Prediction Markets

Valorant: TEC Esports vs Unsettled Resentment (BO3) - VCT Threshold China Week 1

Starts in 1 h 54 minKickoff
Traded
$5K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

TEC Esports 67%

Next is TEC Esports at 57.9%. The venues differ most on TEC Esports (Polymarket 57.5%, Kalshi 59%), a 1.5-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
TEC Esports
67%
Polymarket 67%polled, 30s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Map Handicap: TEC (-1.5) vs Unsettled Resentment (+1.5)
Last price
67%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
34¢
Trade this on Polymarket
TEC Esports
57.9%
Polymarket 57.5%polled, 30s agoKalshi 59%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 58¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Polymarket
Contract
Match Winner
Last price
57.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
TEC Esports
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$774
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 56¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 58¢.

Map 1 Winner
57%
Polymarket 57%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 66¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
Map 1 Winner
Last price
57%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Map 2 Winner
54%
Polymarket 54%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
Contract
Map 2 Winner
Last price
54%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 30s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 30s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
O/U 2.5 Games
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 30s ago
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 2.5 Games
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
TEC Esports
49.5%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: TEC Esports (-2.5) vs Unsettled Resentment (+2.5)
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Polymarket
TEC Esports
49.5%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: TEC Esports (-2.5) vs Unsettled Resentment (+2.5)
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Polymarket
TEC Esports
49.5%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: TEC Esports (-2.5) vs Unsettled Resentment (+2.5)
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
48.5%
Polymarket 48.5%polled, 30s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
Last price
48.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Unsettled Resentment
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Unsettled Resentment
Last price
43%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$519
Trade this on Kalshi

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • If the game is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up.
  • Trading closes at different times: Oct 23, 2026, 1:00 PM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 25, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: twitch.tv
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: VALORANT Esports, Gamers World, BO3
Show full rule comparison
  • If the game is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up.
  • Trading closes Oct 23, 2026, 1:00 PM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 25, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • TEC Esports
  • TEC Esports
  • Map 1 Winner

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list TEC Esports for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Valorant: TEC Esports vs Unsettled Resentment (BO3) - VCT Threshold China Week 1". TEC Esports leads at 67%. Next is TEC Esports at 57.9%. $5K has traded across 12 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 23, 2026.

This market refers to the Valorant Quarterfinal 1 match between TEC Esports and Unsettled Resentment in the VCT Threshold China Week 1, initially scheduled for October 23, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "TEC Esports" if TEC Esports win the match against Unsettled Resentment. This market will resolve to "Unsettled Resentment" if Unsettled Resentment win the match against TEC Esports. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 6, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 23, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://vlr.gg. However, if https://vlr.gg has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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