Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
100M 98%
Next is 200M at 96.2%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Best Yes price
100M98%98%97.8¢ bid, 98.2¢ askpolled, 54s ago98.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $102 (1.02x)100M98%Polymarket 98%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 98.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
100M
98%
98%
97.8¢ bid, 98.2¢ ask
polled, 54s ago
98.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $102 (1.02x)
100M
98%
Polymarket 98%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 98.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 100M
- Last price
- 98%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 98.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 97.8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $102 (1.02x)
- Volume
- $83K
200M96.2%96.2%93.9¢ bid, 98.4¢ askpolled, 54s ago98.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $102 (1.02x)200M96.2%Polymarket 96.2%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 98.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
200M
96.2%
96.2%
93.9¢ bid, 98.4¢ ask
polled, 54s ago
98.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $102 (1.02x)
200M
96.2%
Polymarket 96.2%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 98.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 200M
- Last price
- 96.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 98.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 93.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $102 (1.02x)
- Volume
- $79K
300M92.8%92.8%92.7¢ bid, 92.9¢ askpolled, 54s ago92.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $108 (1.08x)300M92.8%Polymarket 92.8%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 92.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
300M
92.8%
92.8%
92.7¢ bid, 92.9¢ ask
polled, 54s ago
92.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $108 (1.08x)
300M
92.8%
Polymarket 92.8%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 92.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 300M
- Last price
- 92.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 92.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 92.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $108 (1.08x)
- Volume
- $275K
500M86.5%86.5%86¢ bid, 87¢ askpolled, 54s ago87¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $115 (1.15x)500M86.5%Polymarket 86.5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 87¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
500M
86.5%
86.5%
86¢ bid, 87¢ ask
polled, 54s ago
87¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $115 (1.15x)
500M
86.5%
Polymarket 86.5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 87¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 500M
- Last price
- 86.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 87¢
- Sell Yes
- 86¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $115 (1.15x)
- Volume
- $1.0M
800M70.5%70.5%70¢ bid, 71¢ askpolled, 54s ago71¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $141 (1.41x)800M70.5%Polymarket 70.5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 71¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
800M
70.5%
70.5%
70¢ bid, 71¢ ask
polled, 54s ago
71¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $141 (1.41x)
800M
70.5%
Polymarket 70.5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 71¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 800M
- Last price
- 70.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 71¢
- Sell Yes
- 70¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $141 (1.41x)
- Volume
- $516K
1B55.5%55.5%55¢ bid, 56¢ askpolled, 54s ago56¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $179 (1.79x)1B55.5%Polymarket 55.5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 56¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
1B
55.5%
55.5%
55¢ bid, 56¢ ask
polled, 54s ago
56¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $179 (1.79x)
1B
55.5%
Polymarket 55.5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 56¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 1B
- Last price
- 55.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 56¢
- Sell Yes
- 55¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $179 (1.79x)
- Volume
- $820K
2B24.4%24.4%23.1¢ bid, 25.6¢ askpolled, 54s ago25.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $391 (3.91x)2B24.4%Polymarket 24.4%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 25.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $391 (3.91x)
2B
24.4%
24.4%
23.1¢ bid, 25.6¢ ask
polled, 54s ago
25.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $391 (3.91x)
2B
24.4%
Polymarket 24.4%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 25.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $391 (3.91x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 2B
- Last price
- 24.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 25.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 23.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $391 (3.91x)
- Volume
- $419K
3B11%11%10.2¢ bid, 11.8¢ askpolled, 54s ago11.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $847 (8.47x)3B11%Polymarket 11%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 11.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $847 (8.47x)
3B
11%
11%
10.2¢ bid, 11.8¢ ask
polled, 54s ago
11.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $847 (8.47x)
3B
11%
Polymarket 11%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 11.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $847 (8.47x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 3B
- Last price
- 11%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 11.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 10.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $847 (8.47x)
- Volume
- $144K
4B6.2%6.2%6.1¢ bid, 6.2¢ askpolled, 54s ago6.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)4B6.2%Polymarket 6.2%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
4B
6.2%
6.2%
6.1¢ bid, 6.2¢ ask
polled, 54s ago
6.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
4B
6.2%
Polymarket 6.2%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 4B
- Last price
- 6.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 6.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,613 (16.1x)
- Volume
- $180K
5B3.1%3.1%2.4¢ bid, 3.7¢ askpolled, 54s ago3.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)5B3.1%Polymarket 3.1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 3.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)
5B
3.1%
3.1%
2.4¢ bid, 3.7¢ ask
polled, 54s ago
3.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)
5B
3.1%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 3.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 5B
- Last price
- 3.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,703 (27.0x)
- Volume
- $101K
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- 100M
- 200M
- 300M
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?". 100M leads at 98%. Next is 200M at 96.2%. $3.6M has traded across 10 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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