Combined depth · both venues
Loading both order books…
What the markets expect
Jon Ossoff 22%
Next is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 19.1%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Jon OssoffArb22%18%14.3% fair4¢ bid, 32¢ askpolled, 1 min ago20%18.9% fair20¢ bid, 27¢ askpolled, 3 min ago27¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $370 (3.70x)Jon OssoffArb22%Polymarket 30.5%(14.3% fair)polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 18%(14.3% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 20%(18.9% fair)polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Jon OssoffArb
22%
18%
14.3% fair
4¢ bid, 32¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
20%
18.9% fair
20¢ bid, 27¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
27¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Jon OssoffArb
22%
Polymarket 30.5%(14.3% fair)polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 18%(14.3% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 20%(18.9% fair)polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Jon Ossoff
- Last price
- 30.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 14.3%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 33¢
- Sell Yes
- 28¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $303 (3.03x)
- Volume
- $7K
Polymarket
- Contract
- Jon Ossoff
- Last price
- 18%
- Fair, margin removed
- 14.3%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 32¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $313 (3.13x)
- Volume
- $576
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jon Ossoff
- Last price
- 20%
- Fair, margin removed
- 18.9%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 27¢
- Sell Yes
- 20¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $370 (3.70x)
- Volume
- $1
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Kalshi at 27¢ and selling on Polymarket at 28¢ nets 100 bps before fees.
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezArb19.1%19%1.9% fair18¢ bid, 20¢ askpolled, 1 min ago20%18.9% fair20¢ bid, 25¢ askpolled, 3 min ago7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Alexandria Ocasio-CortezArb19.1%Polymarket 4.1%(1.9% fair)polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 19%(1.9% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 20%(18.9% fair)polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezArb
19.1%
19%
1.9% fair
18¢ bid, 20¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
20%
18.9% fair
20¢ bid, 25¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezArb
19.1%
Polymarket 4.1%(1.9% fair)polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 19%(1.9% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 20%(18.9% fair)polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
- Last price
- 4.1%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.9%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $613
Polymarket
- Contract
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
- Last price
- 19%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.9%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 20¢
- Sell Yes
- 18¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $500 (5.00x)
- Volume
- $145
Kalshi
- Contract
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
- Last price
- 20%
- Fair, margin removed
- 18.9%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 25¢
- Sell Yes
- 20¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $400 (4.00x)
- Volume
- $3K
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Polymarket at 7¢ and selling on Kalshi at 20¢ nets 1300 bps before fees.
Gavin NewsomArb8.6%6.1%1.8% fair3.5¢ bid, 8.7¢ askpolled, 1 min ago12.5%11.8% fair12¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 3 min ago6.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)Gavin NewsomArb8.6%Polymarket 3.8%(1.8% fair)polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 6.1%(1.8% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 12.5%(11.8% fair)polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Gavin NewsomArb
8.6%
6.1%
1.8% fair
3.5¢ bid, 8.7¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
12.5%
11.8% fair
12¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
6.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Gavin NewsomArb
8.6%
Polymarket 3.8%(1.8% fair)polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 6.1%(1.8% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 12.5%(11.8% fair)polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Gavin Newsom
- Last price
- 3.8%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.8%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,449 (14.5x)
- Volume
- $6K
Polymarket
- Contract
- Gavin Newsom
- Last price
- 6.1%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.8%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 8.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,149 (11.5x)
- Volume
- $108
Kalshi
- Contract
- Gavin Newsom
- Last price
- 12.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 11.8%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Polymarket at 6.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 12¢ nets 510 bps before fees.
Raphael WarnockArb6.7%3.5%7.5% fair0.4¢ bid, 6.6¢ askpolled, 1 min ago4%3.9¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, 3 min ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Raphael WarnockArb6.7%Polymarket 16%(7.5% fair)polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 3.5%(7.5% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 4%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Raphael WarnockArb
6.7%
3.5%
7.5% fair
0.4¢ bid, 6.6¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
4%
3.9¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Raphael WarnockArb
6.7%
Polymarket 16%(7.5% fair)polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 3.5%(7.5% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 4%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Raphael Warnock
- Last price
- 16%
- Fair, margin removed
- 7.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 17¢
- Sell Yes
- 15¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $588 (5.88x)
- Volume
- $7K
Polymarket
- Contract
- Raphael Warnock
- Last price
- 3.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 7.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,515 (15.2x)
- Volume
- $74
Kalshi
- Contract
- Raphael Warnock
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Kalshi at 4¢ and selling on Polymarket at 15¢ nets 1100 bps before fees.
Kamala HarrisArb5.7%1.7%5.4% fair0.4¢ bid, 3¢ askpolled, 1 min ago5%4.9¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 3 min ago3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Kamala HarrisArb5.7%Polymarket 11.5%(5.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 1.7%(5.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kamala HarrisArb
5.7%
1.7%
5.4% fair
0.4¢ bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
5%
4.9¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kamala HarrisArb
5.7%
Polymarket 11.5%(5.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 1.7%(5.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Kamala Harris
- Last price
- 11.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 5.4%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $12K
Polymarket
- Contract
- Kamala Harris
- Last price
- 1.7%
- Fair, margin removed
- 5.4%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $71
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kamala Harris
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 4.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Kalshi at 5¢ and selling on Polymarket at 11¢ nets 600 bps before fees.
Pete ButtigiegArb5.2%9.5%1% fair9¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 1 min ago6.5%6.5¢ bid, 6.6¢ askpolled, 3 min ago3.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)Pete ButtigiegArb5.2%Polymarket 2.1%(1% fair)polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 9.5%(1% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 6.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 3.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)
Pete ButtigiegArb
5.2%
9.5%
1% fair
9¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
6.5%
6.5¢ bid, 6.6¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
3.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)
Pete ButtigiegArb
5.2%
Polymarket 2.1%(1% fair)polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 9.5%(1% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 6.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 3.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Pete Buttigieg
- Last price
- 2.1%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,703 (27.0x)
- Volume
- $440
Polymarket
- Contract
- Pete Buttigieg
- Last price
- 9.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $242
Kalshi
- Contract
- Pete Buttigieg
- Last price
- 6.5%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 6.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,515 (15.2x)
- Volume
- $25
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Polymarket at 3.7¢ and selling on Kalshi at 6.5¢ nets 280 bps before fees.
Andy BeshearArb5.1%10.5%9¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 1 min ago5%4.9¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 3 min ago0.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $14,286 (143x)Andy BeshearArb5.1%Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 10.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Andy BeshearArb
5.1%
10.5%
9¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
5%
4.9¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
0.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Andy BeshearArb
5.1%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 10.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Andy Beshear
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $14,286 (143x)
- Volume
- $420
Polymarket
- Contract
- Andy Beshear
- Last price
- 10.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $187
Kalshi
- Contract
- Andy Beshear
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 4.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Polymarket at 0.7¢ and selling on Kalshi at 4.9¢ nets 420 bps before fees.
Josh ShapiroArb3.4%3.4%0.3¢ bid, 6.5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago5%4.9¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 3 min ago0.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $25,000 (250x)Josh ShapiroArb3.4%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 3.4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Josh ShapiroArb
3.4%
3.4%
0.3¢ bid, 6.5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
5%
4.9¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
0.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Josh ShapiroArb
3.4%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 3.4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Josh Shapiro
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $533
Polymarket
- Contract
- Josh Shapiro
- Last price
- 3.4%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,538 (15.4x)
- Volume
- $712
Kalshi
- Contract
- Josh Shapiro
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 4.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Polymarket at 0.4¢ and selling on Kalshi at 4.9¢ nets 450 bps before fees.
Stephen A. Smith3.2%14.5%1¢ bid, 28¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed0.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $33,333 (333x)Stephen A. Smith3.2%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 14.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Stephen A. Smith
3.2%
14.5%
1¢ bid, 28¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
0.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Stephen A. Smith
3.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 14.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Stephen A. Smith
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
- Volume
- $503
Polymarket
- Contract
- Stephen A. Smith
- Last price
- 14.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 28¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $357 (3.57x)
- Volume
- $209
Jon Stewart3.1%4%2% fair0.2¢ bid, 7.7¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed7.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,299 (13.0x)Jon Stewart3.1%Polymarket 4.3%(2% fair)polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 4%(2% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,299 (13.0x)
Jon Stewart
3.1%
4%
2% fair
0.2¢ bid, 7.7¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
7.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,299 (13.0x)
Jon Stewart
3.1%
Polymarket 4.3%(2% fair)polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 4%(2% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,299 (13.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Jon Stewart
- Last price
- 4.3%
- Fair, margin removed
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 8.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,205 (12.0x)
- Volume
- $1K
Polymarket
- Contract
- Jon Stewart
- Last price
- 4%
- Fair, margin removed
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 7.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,299 (13.0x)
- Volume
- $74
Show 11 more outcomesHide 11 outcomes
Abdul El-Sayed2.9%Not listed2%1.9¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 3 min ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Abdul El-Sayed2.9%Kalshi 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Abdul El-Sayed
2.9%
Not listed
2%
1.9¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Abdul El-Sayed
2.9%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Abdul El-Sayed
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
Wes Moore2.7%3.1%1.8% fair0.4¢ bid, 5.8¢ askpolled, 1 min ago2%1.9¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 3 min ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Wes Moore2.7%Polymarket 3.8%(1.8% fair)polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 3.1%(1.8% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Wes Moore
2.7%
3.1%
1.8% fair
0.4¢ bid, 5.8¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
2%
1.9¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Wes Moore
2.7%
Polymarket 3.8%(1.8% fair)polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 3.1%(1.8% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Wes Moore
- Last price
- 3.8%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.8%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $611
Polymarket
- Contract
- Wes Moore
- Last price
- 3.1%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.8%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,724 (17.2x)
- Volume
- $85
Kalshi
- Contract
- Wes Moore
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.
J.B. Pritzker2.3%3.4%1.4% fair1.3¢ bid, 5.5¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed4.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)J.B. Pritzker2.3%Polymarket 3%(1.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 3.4%(1.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
J.B. Pritzker
2.3%
3.4%
1.4% fair
1.3¢ bid, 5.5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
4.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
J.B. Pritzker
2.3%
Polymarket 3%(1.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 3.4%(1.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- J.B. Pritzker
- Last price
- 3%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.4%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,083 (20.8x)
- Volume
- $691
Polymarket
- Contract
- J.B. Pritzker
- Last price
- 3.4%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.4%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,818 (18.2x)
- Volume
- $325
Mark Kelly2.2%2.7%1.1% fair0.3¢ bid, 5.1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago2%1.9¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 3 min ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Mark Kelly2.2%Polymarket 2.5%(1.1% fair)polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 2.7%(1.1% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Mark Kelly
2.2%
2.7%
1.1% fair
0.3¢ bid, 5.1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
2%
1.9¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Mark Kelly
2.2%
Polymarket 2.5%(1.1% fair)polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 2.7%(1.1% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Mark Kelly
- Last price
- 2.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,273 (22.7x)
- Volume
- $947
Polymarket
- Contract
- Mark Kelly
- Last price
- 2.7%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,961 (19.6x)
- Volume
- $59
Kalshi
- Contract
- Mark Kelly
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.
Cory Booker1.9%2.6%1.2% fair0.2¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed4.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)Cory Booker1.9%Polymarket 2.6%(1.2% fair)polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 2.6%(1.2% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Cory Booker
1.9%
2.6%
1.2% fair
0.2¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
4.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Cory Booker
1.9%
Polymarket 2.6%(1.2% fair)polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 2.6%(1.2% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Cory Booker
- Last price
- 2.6%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.2%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,381 (23.8x)
- Volume
- $1K
Polymarket
- Contract
- Cory Booker
- Last price
- 2.6%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.2%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $93
James TalaricoArb1.7%2.9%0.3¢ bid, 5.5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago2%1.9¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 3 min ago0.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $25,000 (250x)James TalaricoArb1.7%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 2.9%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
James TalaricoArb
1.7%
2.9%
0.3¢ bid, 5.5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
2%
1.9¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
0.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
James TalaricoArb
1.7%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 2.9%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- James Talarico
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $408
Polymarket
- Contract
- James Talarico
- Last price
- 2.9%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,818 (18.2x)
- Volume
- $81
Kalshi
- Contract
- James Talarico
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Polymarket at 0.4¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1.9¢ nets 150 bps before fees.
Michelle Obama1.2%5%0.3¢ bid, 9.6¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed0.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $11,111 (111x)Michelle Obama1.2%Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Michelle Obama
1.2%
5%
0.3¢ bid, 9.6¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
0.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Michelle Obama
1.2%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Michelle Obama
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $11,111 (111x)
- Volume
- $655
Polymarket
- Contract
- Michelle Obama
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 9.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,042 (10.4x)
- Volume
- $124
Roy Cooper0.9%3.7%0.3¢ bid, 7.1¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed0.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $16,667 (167x)Roy Cooper0.9%Polymarket 0.4%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 3.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Roy Cooper
0.9%
3.7%
0.3¢ bid, 7.1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
0.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Roy Cooper
0.9%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 3.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Roy Cooper
- Last price
- 0.4%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $16,667 (167x)
- Volume
- $353
Polymarket
- Contract
- Roy Cooper
- Last price
- 3.7%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 7.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,408 (14.1x)
- Volume
- $70
Ro Khanna0.8%3%0.3¢ bid, 5.6¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed0.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $11,111 (111x)Ro Khanna0.8%Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Ro Khanna
0.8%
3%
0.3¢ bid, 5.6¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
0.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Ro Khanna
0.8%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ro Khanna
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $11,111 (111x)
- Volume
- $399
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ro Khanna
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,786 (17.9x)
- Volume
- $80
Bernie Sanders0.7%3%0.3¢ bid, 5.7¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed0.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $16,667 (167x)Bernie Sanders0.7%Polymarket 0.4%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Bernie Sanders
0.7%
3%
0.3¢ bid, 5.7¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
0.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Bernie Sanders
0.7%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Bernie Sanders
- Last price
- 0.4%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $16,667 (167x)
- Volume
- $487
Polymarket
- Contract
- Bernie Sanders
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,754 (17.5x)
- Volume
- $85
Rahm Emanuel0.6%2.7%0.5¢ bid, 4.9¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed0.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $25,000 (250x)Rahm Emanuel0.6%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 2.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Rahm Emanuel
0.6%
2.7%
0.5¢ bid, 4.9¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
0.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Rahm Emanuel
0.6%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 2.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Rahm Emanuel
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $490
Polymarket
- Contract
- Rahm Emanuel
- Last price
- 2.7%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,041 (20.4x)
- Volume
- $87
Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on Polymarket at 7¢, sell on Kalshi at 20¢ (1300 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads
Mostly the same bet: one difference
Where they differ
- Trading closes at different times: Jan 23, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 7, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Vermont Secretary of State, Associated Press, Decision Desk HQ
Show full rule comparisonHide full rule comparison
- Trading closes Jan 23, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 7, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Jon Ossoff
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
- Gavin Newsom
Live prices for Jon Ossoff
What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Polymarket
Open on Polymarket ↗Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—
Waiting for the first live quote…
Depth · top 8 levels
Loading snapshot…Recent trades
Loading…Kalshi
Open on Kalshi ↗Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—
Waiting for the first live quote…
Depth · top 8 levels
Loading snapshot…Recent trades
Loading…What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Vermont Democratic presidential primary winner?". Jon Ossoff leads at 22%. Next is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 19.1%. $48K has traded across 21 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2028.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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