The Prediction Markets

Vermont Governor General Election: voter turnout

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$19K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 230K 93.5%

Next is Above 260K at 81%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 230K
93.5%
Kalshi 93.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 230K
Last price
93.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 260K
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 260K
Last price
81%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$27
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 270K
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 270K
Last price
78%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$92
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 280K
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 280K
Last price
71%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$162
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 290K
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 290K
Last price
62%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$47
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 300K
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 300K
Last price
42%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$872
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 310K
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 310K
Last price
41%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Trade this on Kalshi
275K-300K
39.5%
Polymarket 39.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Polymarket
Contract
275K-300K
Last price
39.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 330K
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 330K
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
300K-325K
22%
Polymarket 22%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
300K-325K
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 8 more outcomes
Above 340K
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 340K
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$204
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 350K
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 350K
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$220
Trade this on Kalshi
325K-350K
15.8%
Polymarket 15.8%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
325K-350K
Last price
15.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
14.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
350K+
15.7%
Polymarket 15.7%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 19.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $518 (5.18x)
Polymarket
Contract
350K+
Last price
15.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19.3¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$518 (5.18x)
Volume
$947
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 370K
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 370K
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
225K
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 11.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $840 (8.40x)
Polymarket
Contract
225K
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11.9¢
Sell Yes
3.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$840 (8.40x)
Volume
$749
Trade this on Polymarket
225K-250K
6.7%
Polymarket 6.7%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 12.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $813 (8.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
225K-250K
Last price
6.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12.3¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$813 (8.13x)
Volume
$939
Trade this on Polymarket
250K-275K
3.9%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 6.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
250K-275K
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.4¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,563 (15.6x)
Volume
$947
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Vermont Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 230K
  • Above 260K
  • Above 270K

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 230K for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Vermont Governor General Election: voter turnout". Above 230K leads at 93.5%. Next is Above 260K at 81%. $19K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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