The Prediction Markets

VfB Stuttgart vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach

Starts in 19 hKickoff
Traded
$32K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Stuttgart 70.4%

Next is Draw at 16.8%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on every outcome.

Stuttgart 70.4%Draw 16.8%M'gladbach 12.8%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Stuttgart
70.4%
Polymarket 70.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 71%(70.3% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 71¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Polymarket
Contract
VfB Stuttgart
Last price
70.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Stuttgart
Last price
71%
Fair, margin removed
70.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 70¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 71¢.

Draw
16.8%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 17%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Draw (VfB Stuttgart vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach)
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$35
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 16¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 17¢.

M'gladbach
12.8%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 13%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
M´gladbach
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 12¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 13¢.

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Same bet: both settle on the 90-minute result

Both settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties excluded.

Only differs in an edge case

  • If the game is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: bundesliga.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, Fox Sports
Show full rule comparison
  • If the game is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up.
  • Both settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties excluded.
  • Trading closes Oct 23, 2026, 6:30 PM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 25, 2026, 6:30 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Stuttgart
  • Draw
  • M'gladbach

Live prices for Stuttgart

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Cover all 3 outcomes across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "VfB Stuttgart vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach". Stuttgart leads at 70.4%. Next is Draw at 16.8%. $32K has traded across 3 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 23, 2026.

This event is for the upcoming Bundesliga game, scheduled for Friday, October 23, 2026 between VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Mönchengladbach.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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