The Prediction Markets

Victoria Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place

Closes
Nov 29, 2026, in 36 days
Traded
$140K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

SNSD 93%

Next is Likud at 69%. The venues differ most on Labor (Polymarket 67.5%, Kalshi 7%), a 61-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
SNSD
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
SNSD
Last price
93%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Likud
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Likud
Last price
69%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
LaborArb
52.4%
Polymarket 67.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Labor
Last price
67.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Labor
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$203
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 16¢ and selling on Polymarket at 62¢ nets 4600 bps before fees.

One NationArb
47.5%
Polymarket 14.7%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 59%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 24.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $403 (4.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
One Nation
Last price
14.7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
24.8¢
Sell Yes
4.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$403 (4.03x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
One Nation
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 24.8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 59¢ nets 3420 bps before fees.

Yashar
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Yashar
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Liberal–National
18.3%
Polymarket 18.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Liberal–National
Last price
18.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
15.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$928
Trade this on Polymarket
Nationals
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nationals
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
GreensArb
12.9%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 17%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Greens
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$424
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Greens
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 15¢ nets 1410 bps before fees.

Together
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Together
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Religious Zionist Party–Zehut
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Religious Zionist Party–Zehut
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 45 more outcomes
Reservists–New Economic Party
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Reservists–New Economic Party
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
DF/GS
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
DF/GS
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Joint List (Hadash–Ta'al–Balad)
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Joint List (Hadash–Ta'al–Balad)
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
Liberal
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Liberal
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Otzma Yehudit
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Otzma Yehudit
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
SDP
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
SDP
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Shas
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Shas
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
The Democrats
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Democrats
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
United Torah Judaism
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
United Torah Judaism
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
Yisrael Beiteinu
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Yisrael Beiteinu
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
A Place for All of Us
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
A Place for All of Us
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
BH Zeleni
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
BH Zeleni
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
BHI
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
BHI
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Blue and White
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Blue and White
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
Crvene linije
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Crvene linije
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
DNS-NPS
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
DNS-NPS
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Haredi Public
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Haredi Public
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
HDZ coalition
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
HDZ coalition
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hrvatska petorka
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hrvatska petorka
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Israel First
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Israel First
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
Laburisti
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Laburisti
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Narodni front
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Narodni front
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
NES/PDA/Naprijed
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
NES/PDA/Naprijed
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
New Economic Party
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
New Economic Party
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
NiP
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
NiP
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Noam for Israel
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Noam for Israel
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
NS
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
NS
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
People of Israel
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
People of Israel
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
PSS
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
PSS
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ra'am
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ra'am
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
Religious Zionist Party
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Religious Zionist Party
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
Republikanci
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republikanci
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
SBB
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
SBB
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
SBiH
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
SBiH
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
SDA
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
SDA
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
SDS
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
SDS
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
SP-DEMOS
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
SP-DEMOS
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
SPS
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
SPS
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ujedinjena Srpska
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ujedinjena Srpska
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Unity
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Unity
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
Victorian Socialists
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Victorian Socialists
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Volja Naroda
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Volja Naroda
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Zehut
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Zehut
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
Zionist Home–The Reservists
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Zionist Home–The Reservists
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
ZPR
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
ZPR
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Labor on Kalshi at 16¢, sell on Polymarket at 62¢ (4600 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 29, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 4, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: vec.vic.gov.au
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Victorian Electoral Commission, Central Elections Committee
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Nov 29, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 4, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • SNSD
  • Likud
  • Labor

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list SNSD for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Victoria Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place". SNSD leads at 93%. Next is Likud at 69%. $140K has traded across 55 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 29, 2026.

The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria. This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties. Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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