The Prediction Markets

Victoria parliamentary election: 3rd place?

Closes
Nov 28, 2026, in 35 days
Traded
$46K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

One Nation 56.5%

Next is Greens at 18.4%. The venues differ most on Greens (Polymarket 22.6%, Kalshi 17%), a 5.5-point gap.

One Nation 56.5%Greens 18.4%Nationals 15.7%Labor 5.4%Liberal 2%6 others 2%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
One Nation
56.5%
Polymarket 60%(55.2% fair)polled, 2 min agoKalshi 59%(57.2% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 63¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Polymarket
Contract
One Nation
Last price
60%
Fair, margin removed
55.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
One Nation
Last price
59%
Fair, margin removed
57.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 59¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 63¢.

Greens
18.4%
Polymarket 22.6%(20.8% fair)polled, 2 min agoKalshi 17%(16.5% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Greens
Last price
22.6%
Fair, margin removed
20.8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
25.6¢
Sell Yes
19.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$391 (3.91x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Greens
Last price
17%
Fair, margin removed
16.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 19.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 21¢.

Nationals
15.7%
Kalshi 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nationals
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Labor
5.4%
Polymarket 5.3%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Labor
Last price
5.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6.5¢
Sell Yes
4.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,538 (15.4x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Labor
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$203
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6.5¢.

Liberal
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Liberal
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Victorian Socialists
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Victorian Socialists
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Liberal–National
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Liberal–National
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Animal Justice
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Animal Justice
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Legalise Cannabis
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Legalise Cannabis
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Libertarian
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Libertarian
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$914
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 29, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 28, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: vec.vic.gov.au
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Victorian Electoral Commission
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Nov 29, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 28, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • One Nation
  • Greens
  • Nationals

Live prices for One Nation

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Victoria parliamentary election: 3rd place?". One Nation leads at 56.5%. Next is Greens at 18.4%. $46K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 28, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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