The Prediction Markets

Virginia Senate margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$19K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Warner, 11+ pts 97.9%

Next is Warner, 7+ pts at 95.8%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Warner, 11+ pts
97.9%
Kalshi 97.9%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 97.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Warner, 11+ pts
Last price
97.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97.9¢
Sell Yes
91.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$227
Trade this on Kalshi
Warner, 7+ pts
95.8%
Kalshi 95.8%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Warner, 7+ pts
Last price
95.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
93.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Warner, 9+ pts
95.5%
Kalshi 95.5%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 97.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Warner, 9+ pts
Last price
95.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97.9¢
Sell Yes
93.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Warner, 13+ pts
90.1%
Kalshi 90.1%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 96.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Warner, 13+ pts
Last price
90.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96.8¢
Sell Yes
90.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Warner, 15+ pts
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 96.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Warner, 15+ pts
Last price
87%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96.8¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$205
Trade this on Kalshi
Warner, 17+ pts
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 91.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Warner, 17+ pts
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91.9¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$22
Trade this on Kalshi
Warner, 19+ pts
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Warner, 19+ pts
Last price
73%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$594
Trade this on Kalshi
Warner, 21+ pts
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Warner, 21+ pts
Last price
61%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 21%+
57%
Polymarket 57%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 21%+
Last price
57%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Warner, 23+ pts
51%
Kalshi 51%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Warner, 23+ pts
Last price
51%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 13 more outcomes
Warner, 25+ pts
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Warner, 25+ pts
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$235
Trade this on Kalshi
Warner, 27+ pts
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Warner, 27+ pts
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Warner, 29+ pts
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Warner, 29+ pts
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 15-18%
17.3%
Polymarket 17.3%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 32.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $305 (3.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-18%
Last price
17.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32.8¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$305 (3.05x)
Volume
$636
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 18-21%
17%
Polymarket 17%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 17.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $568 (5.68x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 18-21%
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17.6¢
Sell Yes
16.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$568 (5.68x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 12-15%
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 12-15%
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$608
Trade this on Polymarket
Warner, 31+ pts
12.3%
Kalshi 12.3%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Warner, 31+ pts
Last price
12.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
6.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 3-6%
8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 14.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $685 (6.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 3-6%
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14.6¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$685 (6.85x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-3%
3.2%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 5.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-3%
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.5¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,818 (18.2x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-3%
3.1%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-3%
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.4¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,852 (18.5x)
Volume
$806
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 9-12%
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 9-12%
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$727
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 6-9%
1.7%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 6-9%
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$808
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 3%+
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 3%+
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$763
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Virginia Department of Elections

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Warner, 11+ pts
  • Warner, 7+ pts
  • Warner, 9+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Warner, 11+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Virginia Senate margin of victory". Warner, 11+ pts leads at 97.9%. Next is Warner, 7+ pts at 95.8%. $19K has traded across 23 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets