The Prediction Markets

Virginia's 11th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$18K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Walkinshaw, 20+ pts 98%

Next is Walkinshaw, 17+ pts at 97%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Walkinshaw, 20+ pts
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Walkinshaw, 20+ pts
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98.8¢
Sell Yes
93.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Walkinshaw, 17+ pts
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Walkinshaw, 17+ pts
Last price
97%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99.2¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Walkinshaw, 14+ pts
96.1%
Kalshi 96.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Walkinshaw, 14+ pts
Last price
96.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99.2¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$708
Trade this on Kalshi
Walkinshaw, 26+ pts
94.4%
Kalshi 94.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Walkinshaw, 26+ pts
Last price
94.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98.8¢
Sell Yes
92.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Walkinshaw, 11+ pts
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Walkinshaw, 11+ pts
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99.2¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Walkinshaw, 23+ pts
93.6%
Kalshi 93.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Walkinshaw, 23+ pts
Last price
93.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98.9¢
Sell Yes
93.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Walkinshaw, 29+ pts
92.9%
Kalshi 92.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Walkinshaw, 29+ pts
Last price
92.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98.8¢
Sell Yes
91.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Walkinshaw, 32+ pts
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Walkinshaw, 32+ pts
Last price
89%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98.7¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Walkinshaw, 35+ pts
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 94.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Walkinshaw, 35+ pts
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
94.2¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Walkinshaw, 38+ pts
78.5%
Kalshi 78.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Walkinshaw, 38+ pts
Last price
78.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 5 more outcomes
Walkinshaw, 41+ pts
65.5%
Kalshi 65.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Walkinshaw, 41+ pts
Last price
65.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Walkinshaw, 44+ pts
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Walkinshaw, 44+ pts
Last price
54%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Walkinshaw, 47+ pts
33.5%
Kalshi 33.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Walkinshaw, 47+ pts
Last price
33.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Walkinshaw, 50+ pts
19.5%
Kalshi 19.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Walkinshaw, 50+ pts
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Walkinshaw, 53+ pts
8.8%
Kalshi 8.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Walkinshaw, 53+ pts
Last price
8.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
3.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Walkinshaw, 20+ pts
  • Walkinshaw, 17+ pts
  • Walkinshaw, 14+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Virginia's 11th District margin of victory". Walkinshaw, 20+ pts leads at 98%. Next is Walkinshaw, 17+ pts at 97%. $18K has traded across 15 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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