The Prediction Markets

Virginia's 3rd District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$40K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 d ago
Share

What the markets expect

Scott, 23+ pts 97%

Next is Scott, 29+ pts at 96.2%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 32 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Scott, 23+ pts
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 31 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Scott, 23+ pts
Last price
97%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
94¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Scott, 29+ pts
96.2%
Kalshi 96.2%polled, 31 h agoBest Yes 99.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Scott, 29+ pts
Last price
96.2%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
99.7¢
Sell Yes
92.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Scott, 26+ pts
93.8%
Kalshi 93.8%polled, 31 h agoBest Yes 99.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Scott, 26+ pts
Last price
93.8%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
99.8¢
Sell Yes
93.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Scott, 35+ pts
91.9%
Kalshi 91.9%polled, 31 h agoBest Yes 95.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Scott, 35+ pts
Last price
91.9%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
95.5¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Scott, 32+ pts
90.1%
Kalshi 90.1%polled, 31 h agoBest Yes 99.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Scott, 32+ pts
Last price
90.1%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
99.5¢
Sell Yes
90.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$15
Trade this on Kalshi
Scott, 38+ pts
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 31 h agoBest Yes 91.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Scott, 38+ pts
Last price
81%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
91.3¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
Scott, 41+ pts
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 31 h agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Scott, 41+ pts
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$800
Trade this on Kalshi
Scott, 44+ pts
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 31 h agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Scott, 44+ pts
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$343
Trade this on Kalshi
Scott, 47+ pts
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 31 h agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
Contract
Scott, 47+ pts
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Scott, 50+ pts
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 31 h agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Scott, 50+ pts
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 14 more outcomes
Democrat 45-50%
25.6%
Polymarket 25.6%polled, 32 h agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 45-50%
Last price
25.6%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
24.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 40-45%
20.7%
Polymarket 20.7%polled, 32 h agoBest Yes 21.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $469 (4.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 40-45%
Last price
20.7%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
21.3¢
Sell Yes
20.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$469 (4.69x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 50-55%
18.8%
Polymarket 18.8%polled, 32 h agoBest Yes 19.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $505 (5.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 50-55%
Last price
18.8%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
19.8¢
Sell Yes
17.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$505 (5.05x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Scott, 53+ pts
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 31 h agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Scott, 53+ pts
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 35-40%
15%
Polymarket 15%polled, 32 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 35-40%
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 55%+
13%
Polymarket 13%polled, 32 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 55%+
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Scott, 56+ pts
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 31 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Scott, 56+ pts
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Scott, 59+ pts
4.6%
Kalshi 4.6%polled, 31 h agoBest Yes 8.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,235 (12.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Scott, 59+ pts
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
8.1¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,235 (12.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Scott, 62+ pts
3.7%
Kalshi 3.7%polled, 31 h agoBest Yes 6.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
Scott, 62+ pts
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
6.4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,563 (15.6x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 30-35%
1.8%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 32 h agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30-35%
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-15%
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 32 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-15%
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 15-25%
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 32 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-25%
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 32 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$849
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 25-30%
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 32 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-30%
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Scott, 23+ pts
  • Scott, 29+ pts
  • Scott, 26+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Scott, 23+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Virginia's 3rd District margin of victory". Scott, 23+ pts leads at 97%. Next is Scott, 29+ pts at 96.2%. $40K has traded across 24 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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