The Prediction Markets

Virginia's 4th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$25K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

McClellan, 12+ pts 96.7%

Next is McClellan, 24+ pts at 94.6%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
McClellan, 12+ pts
96.7%
Kalshi 96.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
McClellan, 12+ pts
Last price
96.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99.3¢
Sell Yes
94.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
McClellan, 24+ pts
94.6%
Kalshi 94.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
McClellan, 24+ pts
Last price
94.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98.4¢
Sell Yes
93.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$28
Trade this on Kalshi
McClellan, 15+ pts
94.1%
Kalshi 94.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
McClellan, 15+ pts
Last price
94.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99.3¢
Sell Yes
94.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Kalshi
McClellan, 18+ pts
94.1%
Kalshi 94.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
McClellan, 18+ pts
Last price
94.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99.2¢
Sell Yes
94.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Kalshi
McClellan, 21+ pts
93.9%
Kalshi 93.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
McClellan, 21+ pts
Last price
93.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99.2¢
Sell Yes
93.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$620
Trade this on Kalshi
McClellan, 27+ pts
92.6%
Kalshi 92.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
McClellan, 27+ pts
Last price
92.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98.4¢
Sell Yes
92.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$35
Trade this on Kalshi
McClellan, 30+ pts
91.1%
Kalshi 91.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
McClellan, 30+ pts
Last price
91.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99.4¢
Sell Yes
90.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
McClellan, 33+ pts
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 96.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
McClellan, 33+ pts
Last price
86%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
96.3¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
McClellan, 36+ pts
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
McClellan, 36+ pts
Last price
76%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
McClellan, 39+ pts
66.5%
Kalshi 66.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
McClellan, 39+ pts
Last price
66.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 15 more outcomes
McClellan, 42+ pts
50.5%
Kalshi 50.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
McClellan, 42+ pts
Last price
50.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 45%+
49.5%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 66¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 45%+
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
McClellan, 45+ pts
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
McClellan, 45+ pts
Last price
39%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$112
Trade this on Kalshi
McClellan, 48+ pts
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
McClellan, 48+ pts
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 35-40%
16.5%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 35-40%
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 40-45%
16%
Polymarket 16%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 40-45%
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
McClellan, 51+ pts
8.3%
Kalshi 8.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
McClellan, 51+ pts
Last price
8.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
2.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 25-30%
5.1%
Polymarket 5.1%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-30%
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
3.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$821
Trade this on Polymarket
McClellan, 54+ pts
4.9%
Kalshi 4.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,136 (11.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
McClellan, 54+ pts
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,136 (11.4x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 20-25%
4.2%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 7.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,333 (13.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.5¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,333 (13.3x)
Volume
$642
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 5-15%
3.8%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 5-15%
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 15-20%
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-20%
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$680
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 30-35%
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30-35%
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$766
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-5%
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-5%
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$360
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • McClellan, 12+ pts
  • McClellan, 24+ pts
  • McClellan, 15+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list McClellan, 12+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Virginia's 4th District margin of victory". McClellan, 12+ pts leads at 96.7%. Next is McClellan, 24+ pts at 94.6%. $25K has traded across 25 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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