The Prediction Markets

Virginia's 5th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$7K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Republican 0-5% 49.5%

Next is Republican 10-15% at 42.6%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Republican 0-5%
49.5%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 83.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-5%
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
83.9¢
Sell Yes
15.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$309
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 10-15%
42.6%
Polymarket 42.6%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 80.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 10-15%
Last price
42.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80.2¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$391
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 0-5%
41.2%
Polymarket 41.2%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 79.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $126 (1.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-5%
Last price
41.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79.1¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$126 (1.26x)
Volume
$310
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 15-20%
36.5%
Polymarket 36.5%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 72.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $138 (1.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-20%
Last price
36.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
72.5¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$138 (1.38x)
Volume
$331
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 20-25%
35.3%
Polymarket 35.3%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 70.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $142 (1.42x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-25%
Last price
35.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70.2¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$142 (1.42x)
Volume
$380
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 5-10%
35%
Polymarket 35%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 67.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 5-10%
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
67.2¢
Sell Yes
2.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$481
Trade this on Polymarket
McGuire, 3+ pts
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
McGuire, 3+ pts
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Perriello, 3+ pts
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Perriello, 3+ pts
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 5%+
16.9%
Polymarket 16.9%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 5%+
Last price
16.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$270
Trade this on Polymarket
Perriello, 6+ pts
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Perriello, 6+ pts
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
9.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 6 more outcomes
Perriello, 9+ pts
9.7%
Kalshi 9.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Perriello, 9+ pts
Last price
9.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Perriello, 21+ pts
6.1%
Kalshi 6.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Perriello, 21+ pts
Last price
6.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,639 (16.4x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Perriello, 12+ pts
4.4%
Kalshi 4.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,136 (11.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Perriello, 12+ pts
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,136 (11.4x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Perriello, 15+ pts
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Perriello, 15+ pts
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Perriello, 18+ pts
3.2%
Kalshi 3.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Perriello, 18+ pts
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,587 (15.9x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 25%+
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25%+
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$385
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Republican 0-5%
  • Republican 10-15%
  • Republican 0-5%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Republican 0-5% for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Virginia's 5th District margin of victory". Republican 0-5% leads at 49.5%. Next is Republican 10-15% at 42.6%. $7K has traded across 16 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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