The Prediction Markets

Virginia's 7th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$14K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Vindman, 5+ pts 84%

Next is Vindman, 8+ pts at 76%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Vindman, 5+ pts
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 95.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Vindman, 5+ pts
Last price
84%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
95.1¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$532
Trade this on Kalshi
Vindman, 8+ pts
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Vindman, 8+ pts
Last price
76%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$205
Trade this on Kalshi
Vindman, 11+ pts
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
Vindman, 11+ pts
Last price
67%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$205
Trade this on Kalshi
Vindman, 14+ pts
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
Vindman, 14+ pts
Last price
67%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$718
Trade this on Kalshi
Vindman, 17+ pts
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Vindman, 17+ pts
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$110
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 15-20%
31.5%
Polymarket 31.5%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-20%
Last price
31.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Vindman, 20+ pts
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Vindman, 20+ pts
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$530
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 20-25%
24.5%
Polymarket 24.5%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
24.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 25%+
19%
Polymarket 19%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25%+
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Vindman, 23+ pts
18.5%
Kalshi 18.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Vindman, 23+ pts
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 7 more outcomes
Vindman, 26+ pts
11.8%
Kalshi 11.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Vindman, 26+ pts
Last price
11.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
6.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 10-15%
8.5%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 10-15%
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Vindman, 29+ pts
6.5%
Kalshi 6.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Vindman, 29+ pts
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 0-5%
4.6%
Polymarket 4.6%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 8.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-5%
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.4¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,190 (11.9x)
Volume
$453
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 5%+
3.8%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 7.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 5%+
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.1¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,408 (14.1x)
Volume
$543
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 0-5%
1.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-5%
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$568
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 5-10%
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 5-10%
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$322
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Vindman, 5+ pts
  • Vindman, 8+ pts
  • Vindman, 11+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Vindman, 5+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Virginia's 7th District margin of victory". Vindman, 5+ pts leads at 84%. Next is Vindman, 8+ pts at 76%. $14K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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