The Prediction Markets

W35 Loule: Aran Teixido Garcia vs Sophie Luescher

LiveKickoff In play now; prices move fast
Traded
$7K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Teixido Garcia 99.6%

Next is Set Handicap: Aran Teixido Garcia (-1.5) vs Sophie Luescher (+1.5) at 0.4%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Teixido Garcia 99.6%Set Handicap: Aran Teixido Garcia (-1.5) vs Sophie Luescher (+1.5) 0.4%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Teixido Garcia
99.6%
Polymarket 100%polled, 51s ago
Polymarket
Contract
W35 Loule: Aran Teixido Garcia vs Sophie Luescher
Last price
100%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99.9¢
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Set Handicap: Aran Teixido Garcia (-1.5) vs Sophie Luescher (+1.5)
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Set Handicap: Aran Teixido Garcia (-1.5) vs Sophie Luescher (+1.5)
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Trade this on Polymarket

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • If the game is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up.
  • Trading closes at different times: Oct 30, 2026, 10:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 6, 2026, 10:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: itftennis.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ITF, ESPN, Flashscore
Show full rule comparison
  • If the game is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up.
  • Trading closes Oct 30, 2026, 10:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 6, 2026, 10:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 2 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Teixido Garcia
  • Set Handicap: Aran Teixido Garcia (-1.5) vs Sophie Luescher (+1.5)

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Cover all 2 outcomes across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "W35 Loule: Aran Teixido Garcia vs Sophie Luescher". Teixido Garcia leads at 99.6%. Next is Set Handicap: Aran Teixido Garcia (-1.5) vs Sophie Luescher (+1.5) at 0.4%. $7K has traded across 2 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 30, 2026.

This market refers to the tennis match between Aran Teixido Garcia and Sophie Luescher in the W35 Loule, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 23, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Aran Teixido Garcia' if Aran Teixido Garcia advances against Sophie Luescher. This market will resolve to 'Sophie Luescher' if Sophie Luescher advances against Aran Teixido Garcia. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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