The Prediction Markets

Walmart US comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) in fiscal 2027

Closes
May 19, 2027, in 7 months
Traded
$10K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
2 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 3.4% 80%

Next is Above 3.6% at 77%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 3.4%
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.4%
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.6%
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.6%
Last price
77%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.8%
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.8%
Last price
66%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4%
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4%
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.2%
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.2%
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$988
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.4%
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.4%
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$576
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.8%
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.8%
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$883
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5%
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5%
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$650
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.6%
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.6%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$9
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fiscal.ai

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 3.4%
  • Above 3.6%
  • Above 3.8%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Walmart US comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) in fiscal 2027". Above 3.4% leads at 80%. Next is Above 3.6% at 77%. $10K has traded across 9 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by May 19, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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