The Prediction Markets

Walmart US comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) in Q3

Closes
Mar 19, 2027, in 5 months
Traded
$14K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 2.8% 86%

Next is Above 3% at 76%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 2.8%
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.8%
Last price
86%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3%
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3%
Last price
76%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.2%
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.2%
Last price
65%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.4%
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.4%
Last price
58%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.6%
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.6%
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$758
Trade this on Kalshi
2.5% to 4%
44.5%
Polymarket 44.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.5% to 4%
Last price
44.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
4% to 5.5%
41.3%
Polymarket 41.3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 54.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $183 (1.83x)
Polymarket
Contract
4% to 5.5%
Last price
41.3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
54.6¢
Sell Yes
27.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$183 (1.83x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 4%
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4%
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$803
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.8%
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.8%
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$391
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.2%
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.2%
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$620
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 7 more outcomes
Above 4.4%
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.4%
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$136
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.6%
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.6%
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$148
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.8%
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.8%
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$64
Trade this on Kalshi
1% to 2.5%
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
1% to 2.5%
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 5%
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5%
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$432
Trade this on Kalshi
1%
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
1%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$496
Trade this on Polymarket
5.5%+
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.5%+
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$715
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fiscal.ai

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 2.8%
  • Above 3%
  • Above 3.2%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 2.8% for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Walmart US comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) in Q3". Above 2.8% leads at 86%. Next is Above 3% at 76%. $14K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 19, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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