The Prediction Markets

Waratah–Wynyard Mayoral Election Winner

Closes
Oct 28, 2026, in 5 days
Traded
$22K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
2 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Chloe Foster 37.7%

Next is Dillon Roberts at 32.8%. The venues differ most on Michael Johnstone (Polymarket 11%, Kalshi 19%), a 8.0-point gap.

Chloe Foster 37.7%Dillon Roberts 32.8%Michael Johnstone 13.4%Leanne Raw 10.4%Kevin Hyland 4.1%Mary Duniam 1.6%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Chloe Foster
37.7%
Polymarket 35.4%(38.6% fair)polled, 5 min agoKalshi 38%(35.2% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 42.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $236 (2.36x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chloe Foster
Last price
35.4%
Fair, margin removed
38.6%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
42.3¢
Sell Yes
28.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$236 (2.36x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Chloe Foster
Last price
38%
Fair, margin removed
35.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$455
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 37¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 42.3¢.

Dillon Roberts
32.8%
Polymarket 31%(33.8% fair)polled, 5 min agoKalshi 32%(29.6% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dillon Roberts
Last price
31%
Fair, margin removed
33.8%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dillon Roberts
Last price
32%
Fair, margin removed
29.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$317
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 28¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 32¢.

Michael Johnstone
13.4%
Polymarket 11%(12% fair)polled, 5 min agoKalshi 19%(17.6% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael Johnstone
Last price
11%
Fair, margin removed
12%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Michael Johnstone
Last price
19%
Fair, margin removed
17.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$182
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 10¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 16¢.

Leanne Raw
10.4%
Polymarket 9%(9.8% fair)polled, 5 min agoKalshi 13%(12% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Leanne Raw
Last price
9%
Fair, margin removed
9.8%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Leanne Raw
Last price
13%
Fair, margin removed
12%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$407
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 10¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 11¢.

Kevin Hyland
4.1%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 5 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kevin Hyland
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
8.8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,136 (11.4x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kevin Hyland
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Mary Duniam
1.6%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 5 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mary Duniam
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mary Duniam
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 0.5¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 50 bps before fees.

Indicative gap, prices are 5 min old: Mary Duniam asks 0.5¢ on Polymarket and bids 1¢ on Kalshi (50 bps). Recheck both venues before trading. See all spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Oct 28, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 27, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: tec.tas.gov.au
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Tasmanian Electoral Commission
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Oct 28, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 27, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Chloe Foster
  • Dillon Roberts
  • Michael Johnstone

Live prices for Chloe Foster

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Waratah–Wynyard Mayoral Election Winner". Chloe Foster leads at 37.7%. Next is Dillon Roberts at 32.8%. $22K has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 28, 2026.

Local government elections are scheduled to be held across Tasmania on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of the Waratah–Wynyard Council area as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as declared by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets