The Prediction Markets

Watch Dis: First Week Album Equivalent Units

Closes
Nov 1, 2026, in 9 days
Traded
$21K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Above 5K 95%

Next is Above 10K at 68%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 5K
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5K
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 10K
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 10K
Last price
68%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 15K
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 15K
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 20K
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 20K
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 35K
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 35K
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$219
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 25K
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 25K
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 30K
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 30K
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$334
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 40K
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 40K
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$464
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 50K
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 50K
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$388
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 60K
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 60K
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$293
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 4 more outcomes
Above 70K
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 70K
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 80K
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 80K
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$490
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 90K
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 90K
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$286
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 100K
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 100K
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$25
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Luminate

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 5K
  • Above 10K
  • Above 15K

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Watch Dis: First Week Album Equivalent Units". Above 5K leads at 95%. Next is Above 10K at 68%. $21K has traded across 14 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 1, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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